"Evaluation Again After 4 Weeks" ... How Much Must Confirmed Cases Decrease to Allow Quarantine Release?

If Death Toll Decreases, 5 out of 6 Indicators Achievable
'Epidemic Forecast' Becomes a Variable Amid Reemergence Concerns

The Daehangno street performance festival, which was held non-face-to-face due to COVID-19 social distancing, has returned to the??. On the 12th, citizens watched performances at the '2022 D. FESTA Daehangno Street Performance Festival' held at Marronnier Park in Daehangno, Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The government, which has been pushing to lift the '7-day quarantine requirement' for COVID-19 confirmed cases since announcing the post-Omicron response plan last April, has postponed the decision once again by four weeks. It presented six judgment indicators to decide whether to extend the quarantine obligation and stated that it would re-evaluate at any time if these are met. However, considering the possibility of a resurgence this fall and winter, it is expected that lifting the quarantine requirement within this year will not be easy.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters on the 20th, as the COVID-19 situation gradually improves, many of the seven key and supplementary indicators presented by the headquarters?such as the number of deaths, fatality rate, epidemic forecast, excess deaths, variant viruses, and healthcare system response capacity?have already been achieved or are close to the criteria.

First, the key indicator for COVID-19 deaths is set at 'an average of 10-20 deaths per day, 50-100 deaths per week,' but as of the second week of this month, the number of deaths was recorded at 113. Recently, the daily death count has consistently remained below 10, so the weekly death count is expected to drop below 100 soon.

Another key indicator, the fatality rate, was 0.07% last month, falling within the quarantine release criteria of '0.05-0.1%.'

The supplementary indicator 'excess deaths (whether excess deaths are within 5% compared to the maximum deaths in the past three years)' was 41.4% in April (3rd to 30th), exceeding the standard. However, considering that the number of deaths in May dropped to about 20% of the previous month, it is likely that the evaluation next week, reflecting data up to mid-June, will conclude that the criteria have been met.

Another supplementary indicator, major variant viruses, is unlikely to appear for the time being. Although the number of sub-lineage variants stronger than Omicron has increased, with a cumulative total of 176 cases confirmed up to last week, the health authorities explained that this is not at a level that significantly affects the epidemic.

The weekly risk level assessing healthcare system response capacity has remained 'low' nationwide, in the metropolitan area, and outside the metropolitan area for four consecutive weeks since the third week of May, falling within the standard range.

The key will be how the epidemic forecast comes out four weeks later. The criterion presented by the health authorities is whether the epidemic curve will not rebound over the next 2-3 months assuming that about 50% continue to observe the 7-day quarantine even after lifting the quarantine obligation. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency predicted that if the quarantine obligation is lifted at this point, confirmed cases will reach 12,000 by the end of this month, 39,000 by the end of July, and about 141,000 by the end of August (8.3 times the current number).

Health experts say that it is premature to discuss lifting the quarantine requirement as the epidemic size could grow again even if the quarantine obligation is maintained. Concerns about additional confirmed cases have increased due to the resumption of overseas travel, and the effect of the third vaccine booster shot administered earlier this year is also waning. There is a possibility that the resurgence of COVID-19 this fall and winter, as well as other infectious diseases like influenza, could influence the spread of COVID-19.

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital pointed out, "The virus's infectious period is still 7-10 days, and although Omicron has lower severity, its transmissibility is strong, so quarantine is necessary," adding, "Lifting the quarantine obligation will create a situation where COVID-19 patients and general patients share the same hospital room." Professor Lee Jae-gap of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital said, "Considering that the virus's risk has not completely disappeared, the vaccine's effectiveness, and the waning immunity of infected individuals, the epidemic will worsen again, and without maintaining legal quarantine, it will be impossible to control the epidemic situation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.