US and Western Allies Ponder Ukraine 'Exit Strategy'... Controversy Over Territorial Concessions and Ceasefire Spreads

Prolonged War and Inflation Shake Public Sentiment Worldwide
35% Support "Territorial Concessions and Ceasefire" in European Poll
US Also Shifts Stance: "Must Oversee Corruption Within Ukraine"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the war in Ukraine drags on, voices are growing louder that Ukraine should quickly seek a ceasefire even if it means giving up some territory. This is because soaring prices due to the war's aftermath are shaking public sentiment in various countries. In Europe, opinions that support for Ukraine is excessive have become dominant.

The United States and Western countries are outwardly pledging military support to prevent the war from spreading, but subtle shifts in attitude are being detected. Russia is exploiting these weaknesses of Western countries. It is continuing to pressure the West by minimizing and stabilizing the front lines while weaponizing energy, food, and resources. Some predict that the Ukrainian region may become divided like the Korean Peninsula, resulting in a prolonged stalemate.

◆42% of European Citizens Say "Support Already Excessive"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

On the 19th (local time), Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said in an interview with the German media Bild am Sonntag, "We must prepare for the fact that the war in Ukraine could last for years," emphasizing, "Even if the cost of military support and the global surge in energy and food prices is high, support for Ukraine must not be weakened." He further warned, "If we fail to stop Russia in this war and they learn they can continue their aggression, we may pay an even higher price."

This statement is interpreted as a warning against the recent rise in opposition to supporting Ukraine in various European countries. According to a survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on the 15th, involving 8,000 citizens from 10 European countries, 35% responded that "Ukraine should quickly end the war even if it concedes some territory," which was higher than the 22% who said "Russia must be defeated." Additionally, 42% of all respondents said "support for Ukraine is excessive."

European countries' positions on supporting Ukraine are sharply divided. According to the British BBC, countries like the UK, Poland, and the Baltic states within Europe are calling for strengthened support, hoping for a clear defeat of Russia in the Ukraine war, whereas France, Germany, and Italy are urging for a swift ceasefire.

◆US Faces Diplomatic Challenges, Seeks Exit Strategy

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The United States, a key supporter of Ukraine, is also hearing voices cautioning against excessive support.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported growing concerns among current and former US officials about corruption within Ukraine. This is because Western support for Ukraine is being executed without any supervisory or monitoring body. There are warnings not to repeat the mistakes of the Afghan government forces, which collapsed due to corruption despite receiving over $80 billion (about 103 trillion won) in military aid.

John Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), told WSJ in an interview, "No matter how good the intentions, thieves will emerge, and illegal activities, nepotism, waste, and abuse can occur anywhere," emphasizing, "One thing we learned in Afghanistan is that supervision must start from the beginning of support."

Previously, the US government provided emergency aid without establishing supervisory bodies to quickly counter Russia's invasion. It is known that currently, more than $130 million (about 168 billion won) per day in military and various economic aid is being sent to Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden recently asked Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin not to make statements that excessively provoke Russia. According to NBC News on the 16th, President Biden requested moderation regarding remarks made by Blinken and Austin during their visit to Ukraine in April, where they said, "We want to help Ukraine win." This was because such remarks could raise concerns about direct conflict between the US and Russia and create excessive expectations for support in Ukraine.

Furthermore, from President Biden's perspective, there are numerous challenges such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, inducing increased oil production, and restoring the Iran nuclear deal, all aimed at curbing soaring inflation. Cooperation with Russia is essential to resolve these issues.

◆"Ukraine Will Be Divided Like the Korean Peninsula"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to pressure the West by reducing and stabilizing the front lines while weaponizing resources such as energy and food.

Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom announced on the 18th that it will suspend gas supply through the TurkStream pipeline, which connects Turkey to Europe, from the 21st to the 28th. Earlier last week, it had announced a reduction of more than 60% in gas supply through Nord Stream 1, which connects to Germany.

The Washington Post (WP), citing experts, pointed out, "Ukraine and Russia may be divided into occupied territories by various countries, continuing a long-term stalemate without a ceasefire like the Korean Peninsula," adding, "The Ukrainian military, which is inferior to Russia in terms of military scale and firepower, is currently doing its best to hold the front lines in a deadlock."

The Ukrainian side also announced that it will launch counterattacks until August and then enter peace negotiations with Russia. David Arakhamia, Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia, emphasized in an interview with Voice of America (VOA), "We are currently conducting various counteroffensive operations to gain a more advantageous position for negotiations, and we will return to peace talks with Russia by the end of August."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.