France Holds Legislative Runoff Election Today... Ruling Party's Majority Seat Securing Is Key
[Asia Economy Reporter Song Seung-seop] On the 19th (local time), the runoff election for the general election will be held in France. The key issue is whether the ruling party led by French President Emmanuel Macron can secure a majority in the parliament.
In the latest polls, the ruling coalition 'Ensemble,' including Macron's centrist Renaissance party, is projected to win 255 to 305 seats out of 577. The left-wing coalition 'NUPES,' led by Jean-Luc M?lenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI), is expected to secure 140 to 200 seats. It remains uncertain whether Ensemble can obtain more than 289 seats.
President Macron urgently needs a majority of the centrist ruling forces to stably operate his second-term government. He has pledged to raise the retirement age to 65, implement tax cuts, reform welfare, and expand civic participation. Failure to secure a majority would inevitably weaken his initial momentum. If the left-wing coalition becomes the majority party, he is expected to face difficulties throughout his term.
Macron appealed for securing a parliamentary majority to protect the "nation's top priority interests," mentioning the threat from Russia. NUPES has pledged to lower the retirement age, increase the minimum wage by 15%, freeze prices of essential goods, and combat climate change. M?lenchon also promised to grant citizenship to Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks.
The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is analyzed to secure 10 to 45 seats. The National Rally aims to obtain at least 15 seats to form a parliamentary negotiation group.
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Meanwhile, in the first round of voting on the 12th, both Ensemble and NUPES recorded 25 to 26% of the vote share. In the second round, the top candidate and the 2nd to 4th place candidates who secured more than 12.5% of registered voters' votes will compete again to elect the final winner. The results are expected to be announced through exit polls by broadcasting stations after voting ends at 8 p.m. that day.
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