China and Russia: How Long Will They Stay United? The Limits of Their 'Shared Dream' [Ukraine Shockwave⑧]

In the broad framework, they are rival powers competing for dominance on the East Asian continent

Strategies for relations with the U.S. and diplomatic approaches also differ

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] There is an analysis that the solid mutual cooperation between China and Russia will be difficult to maintain over the long term following Western economic sanctions due to the war. The two countries are not only in competition for hegemony over the East Asian continent in a broad sense but also have significant differences in their basic diplomatic approaches toward the United States. They also seek different positions and directions in the international community. It is truly a case of 'same bed, different dreams.'

The economic cooperation and exchange between China and Russia are confirmed by the numbers. According to the China Customs Administration, bilateral trade between China and Russia from January to May this year reached $65.81 billion (approximately 85 trillion KRW), a sharp increase of 28.9% compared to the previous year. In particular, China's imports of Russian products jumped 46.5% year-on-year. Considering that the growth rate from January to April was 25.9%, the increase accelerated further last month. Experts expect the trade volume between the two countries to exceed $150 billion this year. For Russia, China has been its largest trading partner for 11 consecutive years since 2010, and the two countries have been expanding economic cooperation under the shared interest of securing China's oil supply sources and Russia's energy export markets.

However, experts point out that there are latent instabilities and clear 'limits' to the cooperation between the two countries. While it is true that they share a partnership stance resisting the U.S.-centered unipolar system amid ongoing specific sanctions against Russia, this atmosphere is unlikely to last. In fact, China and Russia, allies since 1950, have shown polar opposite interests, such as the military clash over Zhenbao Island on the Ussuri River in 1969.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The divergence in perceptions of the United States between the two countries is cited as the biggest cause of the limits to their cooperation. China pursues a 'new type of major power relations' that checks U.S. unilateralism while emphasizing mutual cooperation. This concept was the core of the bilateral relationship that Chinese President Xi Jinping demanded from then U.S. President Barack Obama in 2013, meaning 'no conflict or confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation.' This is also why China has maintained a somewhat ambiguous stance regarding the heightened 'China role theory' in the international community following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Bloomberg reported, "China avoids direct criticism of the war and purchases Russian crude oil, but on the other hand, it is reluctant to directly support the war or mitigate the impact of sanctions," explaining that "China, whose GDP is eight times that of Russia, still has much more to lose in the world economy centered on the U.S. and advanced democracies."

On the other hand, Russia's approach to the United States can be summarized as 'confrontation.' After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia actively cooperated in forming the U.S.-led new international order but changed course when pressured by NATO expansion. Especially after the 2014 Crimea crisis, Russia openly displayed hostility and removed expressions of potential cooperation and necessity with the U.S. in last year's National Security Strategy (NSS).

Both countries being potential competitors over hegemony on the East Asian continent also means their cooperative relationship can break at any time. The lack of interconnection and prior cooperation between China's Belt and Road Initiative and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union is evidence of this.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.