"End of Mandatory Isolation for Confirmed Cases? Daily Cases May Reach 50,000 in 4 Weeks"

"If There Are Voluntary Efforts Like Confirmed Cases Refraining from Going Out, the Scale Can Decrease"

A study has found that if the isolation requirement for confirmed cases is lifted, the daily number of confirmed cases could increase to around 55,000 after four weeks.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Wooseok] As the government continues discussions on lifting the isolation requirement for COVID-19 confirmed cases, a study has revealed that if the isolation obligation is lifted, the daily number of confirmed cases could rise to around 55,000 within four weeks.

According to the mathematical analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic by the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences on the 19th, Professor Jeong Eunok's research team at Konkuk University stated that if the isolation requirement for confirmed cases is lifted, the number of new daily confirmed cases could reach 55,937 around June 15, four weeks later.

They also predicted that new daily confirmed cases would be 30,621 after one week and 38,623 after two weeks.

This result assumes that the transmission rate of COVID-19 increases by 1.2 times due to the spread of the Omicron subvariant, and that confirmed cases behave like hidden infected individuals (infected persons not diagnosed as confirmed cases) with the same level of transmissibility.

If confirmed cases voluntarily take precautions such as refraining from going out, reducing their transmissibility to 50% of that of hidden infected individuals, the number of new confirmed cases after four weeks is analyzed to decrease to 45,829.

Furthermore, if the current isolation requirement for confirmed cases is maintained while the transmission rate is 1.2 times higher, the number of new confirmed cases after four weeks is predicted to be 37,113; if the transmission rate remains at the current level, the number of new confirmed cases is expected to decrease to 20,525.

Professor Jeong's research team explained, "This study shows the importance of confirmed cases refraining from gatherings and adhering to quarantine guidelines."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.