[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] 'Corona' Emerges as a Variable in North Korea Provocations

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] A variable has emerged in North Korea's military provocations. As COVID-19 rapidly spreads nationwide in North Korea, the number of isolated individuals has exceeded 180,000, and there have been 6 deaths.

With Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, strongly criticizing the gaps in the quarantine system, there is speculation that the additional provocations expected this month may temporarily enter a hiatus. However, there is also analysis that high-intensity provocations to deliver external messages around the time of the South Korea-US summit will continue, leading to mixed views.

Experts on North Korea generally believe that North Korea will continue a kind of "warning military demonstration" toward the new government for the time being. The day before last evening, North Korea fired three KN-25 short-range ballistic missiles, known as "super-large multiple rocket launchers." The KN-25 is one of the "three types set (KN-23~25)" of short-range ballistic missiles developed by North Korea for use against South Korea. This is the first time in 2 years and 2 months since March 2020 that North Korea has fired super-large multiple rocket launchers. This is also the first time that three rounds were fired consecutively within one minute. South Korea's missile defense system (KAMD) Kill Chain is known to detect and destroy North Korea's long-range artillery within at least 5 minutes, so this appears to be a means to evade it.

North Korea is likely to fire additional super-large multiple rocket launchers in the future. More test launches are needed to equip the warheads of the super-large multiple rocket launchers with dual-purpose submunitions (DPICM) or cluster munitions designed to destroy buildings. In particular, it is expected that development will continue to shorten the firing intervals to maximize surprise attack capability and to enable launches at low altitudes. If the super-large multiple rocket launcher equipped with a high-power warhead flies quickly at low altitude, it may be difficult to intercept from the ground.

Since Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, declared "strengthening nuclear forces" in his speech at the military parade on the 25th of last month and expressed his intention to develop various nuclear delivery means, the possibility of additional provocations is high. North Korea's continuation of military demonstrations using various means such as the ballistic missile presumed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the 4th, the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on the 7th, and now the super-large multiple rocket launcher supports this analysis. However, the military and experts believe that further analysis is needed regarding the "completeness" of the missiles fired that day.

Typically, North Korea verifies accuracy by targeting "Alseom" in the East Sea during short-range ballistic missile test launches, but it is known that the launches that day were random toward the East Sea without aiming at a "specific target." This implies that additional test launches may be necessary to improve accuracy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.