Russia Struggling... Even Belarus, Which Helped the Invasion, Becomes at Risk

Belarus, a Key Russian Ally... Serving as a Launchpad for Russia's Advance on Kyiv
Majority of Belarusian People Oppose Attacks on Ukraine and War Support

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus. Photo by AP, Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Se-eun] As Russia struggles in the Ukraine war, assessments are emerging that Belarus, which aided Russia, is also facing a crisis.

The American foreign affairs magazine Foreign Policy reported on the 4th (local time) that Belarus, by assisting Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has found itself in a difficult position alongside Russia.

Belarus is a long-time ally of Russia and shares a border with northern Ukraine.

At the beginning of the Ukraine war, thousands of Russian troops advanced toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, through Belarus.

It is interpreted that Belarus allowed Russia passage because its president, Alexander Lukashenko, maintained power by relying on Russia.

President Lukashenko faced a threat of removal after the controversial 2020 fraudulent election, but Russian President Vladimir Putin supported him, enabling the violent suppression of protesters and opposition figures.

However, Foreign Policy assessed that in February this year, Lukashenko’s decision to assist Russia’s invasion reinvigorated the Belarusian democratic forces who had fled abroad to escape repression.

While already under Western sanctions due to the election controversy, Belarus faced additional high-level sanctions for cooperating in the Ukraine invasion, worsening public opinion.

Belarusian opposition leaders in exile have highlighted these points to strongly criticize the Lukashenko regime.

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya said, "Lukashenko allowed Putin to use our land like an aircraft carrier," adding, "Our country (Belarus) was used to launch missiles at Ukraine, which shocked the people greatly."

Currently, the Belarusian public holds a negative view of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

According to a survey conducted in March by the British think tank Chatham House, 67% of Belarusian respondents opposed Russian troops being stationed in Belarus while attacking Ukraine.

Only 3% supported direct participation of their own country.

Until now, the Belarusian opposition had only fought against the ruling party, but recently they have also increased criticism of Russia.

Tikhanovskaya explained, "Seeing Russian troops occupy Belarusian territory gives our struggle geopolitical significance," and added, "If Ukraine wins the war, the Kremlin (symbol of Russia) will weaken, and at the same time, Lukashenko will also weaken."

She announced plans to open an office in Kyiv to support Belarusians helping Ukraine’s resistance and to strengthen relations with the Ukrainian government.

Meanwhile, on the same day, Belarus suddenly began large-scale military exercises.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated, "This is merely a training exercise to test combat readiness," and "It will not pose a threat to neighboring countries or the European community," drawing a line under speculation about participation in the Ukraine war.

However, as concerns about Belarus deploying troops to the Ukraine war continue, the Ukrainian side stated, "If Belarus participates in the war, we are prepared to respond."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.