Government Preparing for 'Post-Omicron' ... Experts Say "It's Still Early"

Lifting Social Distancing Followed by International Flight Expansion Next Month... Endemic Expected This Fall
Experts Say "Must Consider Variables from Critical Patient Management to New Variants"

On the 1st of this month, when the government announced the adjustment plan for social distancing, office workers were moving for lunch in Myeongdong, Seoul. From the 4th, the limit on private gatherings will be expanded from 8 to 10 people for two weeks. Business hours restrictions will also be extended from 11 PM to midnight. The government plans to consider lifting all quarantine regulations except for indoor mask-wearing if the COVID-19 outbreak clearly shifts to a decline and severe cases and the healthcare system are stably managed over the next two weeks. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the daily number of new COVID-19 cases drops to the 200,000 range, signaling a decline in the Omicron wave, discussions about the 'post-Omicron' phase are gaining momentum. Although health authorities have announced plans to revert quarantine and medical systems back to normal levels by lifting social distancing and easing isolation measures, experts remain cautious, saying it is still 'premature' to declare COVID-19 as endemic.

Discussions on Lowering Infectious Disease Classification and Shortening Isolation Period

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 7th, from midnight to 9 p.m. the previous day, 220,464 people across 17 cities and provinces nationwide were confirmed positive for COVID-19. This is 60,798 fewer than the 281,262 cases recorded during the same time frame on the previous day (the 5th).

Earlier, as of midnight on the 6th, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 286,294, showing a clear decline of over 130,000 compared to a week ago on March 30 (424,586 cases) and over 200,000 compared to two weeks ago on March 23 (490,780 cases). Typically, Wednesdays see the highest number of cases during the week as the 'weekend effect' disappears, but the drop to the 200,000 range on a Wednesday is the first in five weeks since April 2 (219,223 cases).

The key indicator for tracking the epidemic’s trend, the effective reproduction number (Rt), also fell from 1.6 in early February to 0.91 in early April (March 27?April 2). An Rt above 1 indicates epidemic spread, while below 1 indicates decline; this is the first time in 11 weeks since the second week of January, when Omicron peaked, that the Rt has dropped below 1.

Currently, the highly transmissible stealth Omicron variant (BA.2) has become dominant in South Korea and is considered the biggest variable affecting the recent wave. However, health authorities believe the possibility of a 'second peak' is low since the BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron waves overlapped domestically.

Accordingly, the government plans to fully lift various social distancing rules during the next adjustment if the downward trend continues and the medical system remains stable. They have announced consideration of completely abolishing restrictions on business hours and private gatherings, leaving only indoor mask-wearing in place. This has raised expectations that masks might be allowed to be removed outdoors starting from the 18th.

Furthermore, the government is preparing a 'post-Omicron response system' to be applied after lifting social distancing. First, they are reviewing lowering COVID-19’s infectious disease classification from the highest 'Level 1' to 'Level 2,' which includes diseases like tuberculosis, chickenpox, and measles. Depending on this reclassification, the isolation period for confirmed cases could be reduced from the current 7 days to about 5 days, or the isolation requirement might be completely lifted.

However, Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, responded to questions about these plans by saying, "We will prioritize discussions on lifting social distancing measures that cause significant socio-economic damage," adding, "It is currently uncertain whether an endemic declaration can be made at a specific point in time."

On the 17th of last month, medical staff at Seoul Metropolitan Seobuk Hospital in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul, are caring for COVID-19 patients. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Goal to Normalize by Fall but Death Toll Remains High

Although the government does not officially mention endemic status, it expects the normalization of society to pre-COVID-19 conditions around this fall. Various ongoing quarantine measures will gradually transition to more routine systems, with a focus on controlling the pace, similar to the 'gradual recovery of daily life' approach taken last November.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced plans to significantly expand international flights starting next month, estimating the endemic phase around October.

The normalization of the healthcare system with endemic in mind is already progressing gradually. The government is increasing the number of 'outpatient treatment centers' so COVID-19 patients can receive face-to-face care at local clinics, and starting today, home-treated patients are allowed to pick up prescribed medications directly at neighborhood pharmacies.

With COVID-19 patients now able to get professional rapid antigen tests at local clinics, rapid antigen testing at public health center screening clinics will be completely discontinued starting April 11.

Infectious disease and public health experts warn that while the current trend suggests some stabilization of the epidemic for the time being, it is still too early to discuss endemic status. They emphasize that with severe cases and deaths not decreasing, recent government remarks hinting at a complete lifting of social distancing are inappropriate. They also agree that if new risk factors emerge, social distancing measures must be promptly reinstated.

Professor Choi Jae-wook of Korea University’s Department of Preventive Medicine said, "Looking at the recent period alone, the decrease in cases might justify lifting social distancing, but during the Omicron wave in February and March, the government’s continuous easing of measures increased casualties. Instead of being swayed by case numbers or self-congratulating with the term 'endemic,' we must continue monitoring issues such as the emergence of new variants."

Professor Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, stated, "Since the Omicron wave, about 9,000 people have died since March, nearly 10,000 in the past two months, which is a heavy toll on the path to endemicity." Professor Baek added, "We don’t use the term 'confirmed case' or isolate people when they catch the flu, and they don’t go to hospitals; similarly, COVID-19 must be manageable within the routine healthcare system to even consider endemic status. Considering the possibility of a resurgence this fall and winter, there are still many hurdles to overcome, from lifting Level 1 infectious disease status to removing masks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.