Taiwan: "China Unlikely to Invade Within 3 Years... Probably Surprised by Pressure on Russia"

"If China Attacks, We Will Respond in Kind"

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Na Yeeun] Chen Ming-tong, head of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB), stated that "it is unlikely that China will send troops to Taiwan during President Tsai Ing-wen's remaining three-year term."

According to Taiwan Central News Agency, Chen said during a report to the Legislative Yuan's Foreign and National Defense Committee on the 28th, in response to the question "What is another lesson China learned from the Ukraine war?" that "China was surprised by the success of international sanctions against Russia, including the removal from the SWIFT payment network. China will be more cautious about any actions toward Taiwan."

He added, "Russia made many mistakes, such as attacking Ukraine without a systematic operation, and China, observing this, must have realized not to make the same mistakes and will not hastily send troops to Taiwan."

However, he emphasized, "We must not lower our guard and must be well-prepared militarily. Once China attacks, we must respond accordingly. We are not weak cowards who can do nothing." He further added, "China must have understood that once it decides to attack, it must be a full-scale operation."

Tian Mingtong, Director of the National Security Bureau (NSB). / Photo by CNA, Taiwan capture

Regarding reports about a confidential report from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping considered a military invasion of Taiwan this year to 'fully take over' Taiwan before the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Chen dismissed it as "China's cognitive war." He explained that it is a psychological warfare tactic spreading false information to pressure Taiwan.

Chen's remarks contrast with those of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander John Aquilino, who in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) on the 25th said, "Five months ago, no one expected a war to break out in Ukraine. The biggest lesson from this is that anything can happen," warning that Asian countries should take seriously the possibility of an attack on Taiwan by the People's Liberation Army of China.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.