They Said Up to 370,000... Flood of Criticism Over Government's Missed Forecast

40,7017 New COVID-19 Cases as of Midnight on the 18th, Second Largest Ever
Health Authorities: "Spread is Higher Than Expected"
Increase in 'Shy Omicron' Cases Avoiding Testing

On the 18th, medical staff at the temporary screening clinic in Seoul Plaza closely monitored the rapid antigen test kit results of a tester. The photo is unrelated to specific expressions in the article. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Heo Midam] Amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, the number of new confirmed cases has recently surged. Initially, the government had predicted the peak weekly daily average of confirmed cases to be around 370,000. However, the explosive increase has exceeded the government's forecasts, heightening public anxiety.

Some critics argue that the government's predictions can no longer be trusted. In particular, as cases of so-called 'Shy Omicron'?people showing COVID-19 symptoms but avoiding testing and treatment?continue, distrust in the government's confirmed case statistics is growing.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) announced that as of midnight on the 18th, 407,017 new COVID-19 cases were reported. Although this number is 214,311 fewer than the previous day (621,328 cases), it remains the second-highest daily total ever recorded. The 400,000-level new cases appeared for the second time since the 16th (400,740 cases).

Previously, the government predicted that around the 23rd, the weekly daily average of confirmed cases would decline to between 310,000 and 370,000. However, the cumulative confirmed cases over the past week (12th to 18th) averaged about 405,000 per day, already surpassing government forecasts. Especially, it appears that daily cases will continue to range between 400,000 and 500,000 for the time being, indicating that the authorities' predictions have effectively missed the mark.

Regarding this, Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the CDCH, said at a regular briefing on the afternoon of the 17th, "The spread is higher than expected, and the peak period may last somewhat longer," adding, "Further calculations are needed regarding the scale of patient occurrence and the duration of the peak."

Given this situation, public distrust in the government is growing. Criticism has intensified especially due to errors in the recent confirmed case counting process. On the 15th at 9 p.m., the number of confirmed cases was predicted to exceed 440,000, but the final tally as of midnight on the 16th was 400,741, resulting in an error of over 40,000 cases. Approximately 70,000 cases omitted from the tally were later included in the statistics on the 17th.

Kim, a worker in his 20s, said, "At the beginning of COVID-19, the response was so good that there was talk of 'K-Quarantine.' But now, it's the complete opposite," adding, "The quarantine guidelines keep changing, which is confusing. Also, I don't understand how errors could occur in the confirmed case statistics. In such a chaotic time, shouldn't accurate information delivery be a priority?"

Citizens are waiting to receive PCR and rapid antigen tests at the COVID-19 screening clinic of Songpa-gu Public Health Center in Songpa-gu, Seoul. The photo is unrelated to specific expressions in the article. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Critical voices continue online as well. Netizens commented, "They said 370,000 was the peak, but for several days, cases have exceeded 400,000. Considering hidden infections, the actual number must be even higher. It's worrying," "What exactly is the peak number?" "Are the confirmed cases really decreasing?" "It's embarrassing that Korea ranks first worldwide in new COVID-19 cases," and so on.

The surge in confirmed cases appears to be influenced by changes in the criteria for recognizing confirmed cases. Since the 14th, the health authorities have classified people who test positive on professional rapid antigen tests conducted at hospitals and clinics as confirmed COVID-19 cases without requiring a separate PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test.

Meanwhile, as the number of so-called 'Shy Omicron' infected individuals?those with COVID-19 symptoms who avoid testing?increases, the actual number of infections is expected to be much higher than the officially announced confirmed cases. It is reported that some delivery workers, self-employed individuals, and day laborers avoid testing because isolation itself could lead to financial hardship.

In response, the health authorities have begun recalculating predictions for the scale of patient occurrence and the duration of the peak by reflecting the changed quarantine situation and diagnostic testing system. Lee Sang-won, head of the CDCH Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team, said, "Epidemic prediction models mathematically calculate based on current situational variables," adding, "Changes in quarantine policies or conditions such as rapid antigen testing cannot be fully reflected."

He continued, "We are currently revising and recalculating the models," and said, "More calculations may be needed regarding the scale of patient occurrence and how long the peak period will last."

Meanwhile, starting from the 21st, the current private gathering limit of six people will be expanded to eight, slightly easing social distancing measures. However, the operating hours restriction for multi-use facilities such as restaurants, which currently ends at 11 p.m., will remain unchanged.

Kwon Deok-cheol, first deputy head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) and Minister of Health and Welfare, stated in opening remarks at a CDSCH meeting held at the Government Sejong Complex on the same day, "From next Monday (the 21st), the private gathering limit under social distancing will be adjusted from six to eight people."

He added, "Although it is time to newly adjust social distancing measures after the past two weeks, considering the Omicron pandemic, the burden on the medical response system, and the uncertainty of peak predictions, there are significant concerns about easing distancing measures drastically."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.