Signs of North Korea Reverting to 2017 Conditions

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is rapidly reverting the Korean Peninsula's clock to the tense levels seen in 2017 as if determined to do so. It is expected that provocations will escalate further ahead of the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration.

According to government officials, simultaneous provocations by North Korea have been detected at Dongchang-ri, Punggye-ri, Kumgangsan, and Yongbyon, causing tensions on the Korean Peninsula to soar.

At the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, expansion and reconstruction work is underway to enable the launch of long-range rockets that can be converted into intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). At Punggye-ri, some tunnels of the nuclear test site that had been demolished are reportedly being restored.

Additionally, at Yongbyon, the 5MW reactor, reprocessing facilities, and highly enriched uranium (HEU) production facilities are operational, while at Kumgangsan, demolition of South Korean facilities has begun.

At the Sinpo Shipyard, a Whale-class submarine capable of launching new-type submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) is docked.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), which oversees U.S. intelligence agencies, stated in its recently released "Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community" report that "flight tests are part of North Korea's efforts to increase the number and types of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to the U.S. mainland." Referring to the SLBM test in October last year, the report said, "North Korea continues to pursue sea-based nuclear strike capabilities."

It is known that demolition of South Korean facilities has partially started at Kumgangsan. This is interpreted as a measure signaling a 'strong against strong' response to the new government.

Since October 2019, when Chairman Kim Jong-un inspected Kumgangsan and ordered, "Remove the shabby South Korean facilities that are unpleasant to look at," North Korea has shown signs of actually starting demolition.

However, when the COVID-19 situation emerged, North Korea notified South Korea in January 2020 that demolition would be postponed due to the pandemic, but recently began demolition work without any consultation or notification.

These series of moves, if fully underway, are all major issues that could instantly plunge the Korean Peninsula situation into turmoil. President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol faces the difficult task of firmly responding to North Korea while managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula even before his inauguration.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.