Russia's Invasion of Ukraine... China Developing 'Taiwan-Related Scenarios'

Citizens are walking in front of the national flag, the Blue Sky with a White Sun, on the streets of Taipei, Taiwan.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] It has been observed that China is developing various scenarios related to Taiwan in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

On the 11th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, "With Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, attention is focused on whether China will follow suit in Taiwan," introducing experts' analyses on China's stance.

Professor Zhu Feng of Nanjing University stated that the Chinese government is developing multiple scenarios to respond to various challenges. He said, "China is not foolish enough to be easily manipulated in the geopolitical game by the United States," and added, "The Chinese government is very clear that avoiding any military conflict is important."

Military expert Ni Lexiong from Shanghai said that China is calculating very carefully how to respond to the United States and Taiwan, and that the asymmetric tactics adopted by Ukraine are also drawing attention.

He pointed out, "The combat cost of a Taiwan contingency would be much greater than Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine," and noted, "There are many uncertainties if war breaks out."

He further explained, "For example, President Vladimir Putin realized that the airborne troops who took only six hours to occupy Prague during Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 took more than two days to control Kyiv airport this time, showing they are no longer elite forces."

He added that if this was the case even with Russia invading neighboring Ukraine, China's invasion of Taiwan across the natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait would require a much more complex operation.

Military expert Lu Li, a former instructor at the Taiwan Naval Academy, said, "The People's Liberation Army of China will update its Taiwan unification operation plans by observing the vivid tactics adopted by Ukrainian soldiers armed with American weapons."

Experts believe that China will not attack Taiwan while Western attention is focused on Ukraine. However, they said that the intensifying competition between China and the United States means the crisis surrounding Taiwan will continue to escalate.

Wang Jianmin, a Taiwan specialist at Minnan Normal University in China, said, "If the United States resumes diplomatic relations or sends any signals of military support to Taiwan, military conflict could break out in the Taiwan Strait at any time," but also noted that there is still room for the U.S. and China to handle the Taiwan issue more wisely.

Zhou Chenming, a military expert in Beijing, evaluated that the Chinese leadership is more competent and confident than the Russian leadership in handling the country's core interests. He explained, "In terms of economic capability and military power, China is much stronger than Russia," and added, "As a rising power, China believes that time and strength are on its side in catching up with the United States in national power through great efforts in economy and defense."

Meanwhile, Taiwan has emphasized that "no one should engage in war" regarding the situation with China following the Ukraine crisis.

According to reports from Central News Agency on the 10th, Taiwan's Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng warned reporters that "if war breaks out between China and Taiwan, both sides will suffer greatly regardless of who wins."

He made it clear that "if a full-scale armed conflict occurs between China and Taiwan, both sides will inevitably pay a huge price," and expressed a strong will to respond firmly if the Chinese military provokes militarily.

However, Minister Chiu said that while Taiwan is strengthening its vigilance against China in light of the Ukraine situation, there have been no unusual movements by the Chinese military different from usual, but Taiwan is calmly monitoring the situation and is fully prepared to respond accordingly.

Regarding whether Taiwan would seek external help in the event of war with China, Minister Chiu responded, "Taiwan must take the lead in defense," and said, "I have never seen the Taiwan Strait as a safe place in my eyes."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.