[Expert Analysis] 0.7%p Gap in Regime Judgment? Ultimately a 'Disliked Presidential Election'

Too Late Unification... Ahn Cheol-soo Effect Was Weak
Political Novice Yoon Seok-youl Has a Blank Slate for Cooperation with the Major Opposition, Making It Easier to Envision Plans

Yoon Seok-yeol, the president-elect of the 20th Republic of Korea, is delivering a greeting at the People Power Party's campaign headquarters disbandment ceremony held at the National Assembly Library on the 10th. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporters Bomryeong Geum and Juni Park] The 20th presidential election, which ended with the victory of President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol, concluded with the narrowest margin of votes in history. Regionally, the consolidation of Honam and Yeongnam was maximized, and by age group, the support rates of men and women in their 20s sharply diverged, clearly showing regional and gender conflicts.

President-elect Yoon's emphasis on unity and cooperation as his first statement is closely related to these results. The People Power Party secured 110 seats, earning the ruling party title, but now faces the 'challenge' of confronting a massive opposition with about 170 seats. The 'opposition unification' achieved during the election process leaves the merger with the People’s Party pending, and concerns about the role of Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, have grown. Preparing for the upcoming local elections, which are just around the corner, is considered an urgent task.

Asia Economy held a virtual roundtable with four experts to understand the significance of this election result and to hear the direction President-elect Yoon and the next government should take. The roundtable included Professor Kwan-ok Kim of Keimyung University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Professor Myungho Park of Dongguk University’s Department of Political Science, Director Jongchan Bae of Insight K Research Institute, and political commentator Changsun Yoo (in alphabetical order).

How would you evaluate this election result, which ended with the smallest vote margin in history?

Professor Kim: Initially, the 'regime judgment theory' due to Seoul real estate issues emerged. However, judging by the result alone, defining the 240,000 vote difference as regime judgment is not quite appropriate. Ultimately, it is the result of a highly unfavorable presidential election.

Professor Park: I believe the public’s cycle for judging power has accelerated. The patience of the people has become quite short. The message that if you don’t do well, you can be out anytime applied to both ruling and opposition parties. If we look for another meaning, the basic one is ‘regime change.’ Nothing more, nothing less.

Director Bae: It is the result of political polarization. It was a severe dichotomy that clearly distinguished whether even the last person was an enemy or an ally. Like scraping off scorched rice when cooking, this election was a ‘scorched rice election’ where every single vote had to be scraped.

Commentator Yoo: Looking at the polls conducted during the period when publishing poll results was prohibited, Yoon Seok-yeol’s victory was predicted steadily. I think the Democratic Party’s heightened sense of crisis and appeals may have stimulated the undecided voters’ sentiment.

How do you analyze the effect of opposition unification on the election?

Kim: Unification excluding the people showed that the public did not agree. It means that not a single vote from Ahn Cheol-soo came. When Ahn, then the People’s Party presidential candidate, proposed unification, Yoon’s support rate surged, and expectations were clear. After the declaration of breakdown and other events, support rates declined, and the race solidified into a four-way contest. The unification brought a strong backlash.

Park: I don’t think opposition unification decisively influenced the trend. Yoon’s support rate had already dropped significantly. Rather, the timing was late; it should have been done a week earlier than the original unification date, making it difficult to explain to the public and losing impact. This may have ironically caused consolidation in Honam as a backlash.

Bae: I think unification had a ‘symbolic effect.’ Ultimately, Yoon won. There are claims that ‘if unification hadn’t happened, he would have won by a larger margin,’ but there is no guarantee of that.

Yoo: Some argue there was a backlash from unification, but that doesn’t seem reasonable. The unification effect didn’t increase significantly, but it played a role that could have changed the outcome in such a narrow race.

The confrontation between Honam and Yeongnam, and between 20s women and men, stands out.

Park: The unanimous votes from Yeongnam and Honam were originally there. It’s actually improved compared to before. The fact that Yoon, as a conservative party candidate, achieved the highest vote rate in Honam is evidence. The split between ‘Idaenam’ (20s men) and ‘Idaenyeo’ (20s women) was due to People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok’s gender issue, but it was just an election strategy and tactic. Whether it had to be done that way is another matter.

Bae: It should be seen as a confrontation between camps rather than regionalism. What some call regional sentiment is not the case. People vote for the Democratic Party because it is the Democratic Party in Honam, not because they dislike Yeongnam. The gender split among 20s had strategic effects. Traditionally, it’s hard to consolidate 20s as conservative, so gaining some support is meaningful.

Yoo: The regionalist tendencies that seemed to ease somewhat have revived this time. The Idaenam and Idaenyeo confrontation is a challenge to solve. Ultimately, the People Power Party’s Idaenam strategy failed. The problem is that the party tried to gain votes by promoting division and conflict between men and women, which only stigmatized them.

Kim: It’s hard to say the regional structure has solidified. If Yoon’s support rate was high in Honam, Lee’s Yeongnam votes could have remained high, but unification caused a loss there as well. The polarization among 20s means that if the division is not healed later, gender or generation could become voting criteria.

President-elect Yoon is a political novice. Can he achieve cooperation with the massive opposition?

Park: One way to cooperate is for Yoon to give the National Assembly the right to recommend the prime minister. That means giving it to the majority Democratic Party. The person must be someone the Democratic Party can understand, tolerate, and agree with, which requires political skill. On the other hand, Yoon being a political rookie means he has a blank slate, so drawing the picture might be easier.

Kim: If the legislative power of the National Assembly and the executive power of the president clash, a catastrophic scene is inevitable. Yoon’s only way is to exercise political skill that calls for mutual persuasion and understanding, not force. Using force would cause public discomfort, so he must keep in mind the 240,000 vote difference.

Bae: Communication and dialogue are important, and integration must be embraced from a broad perspective. In a minority ruling party situation, the government should be formed jointly with the majority party.

Yoo: Differences between ruling and opposition parties are inevitable, but if the Democratic Party is too uncooperative from the start, it risks being judged in the June local elections. Until then, they might adopt a temporary reconciliation mode. However, that is time-limited, and cooperation between the parties is expected to be a difficult issue.

What is your outlook on the merger between the People Power Party and the People’s Party?

Kim: Since they promised, the merger will happen, but it won’t be easy because it is linked to positions. There are many people in the party who are there for the June local elections. If they suddenly have to give up their positions, there will be huge conflicts. The merger process will be difficult, and even if it happens, discord is expected afterward.

Yoo: The merger will proceed relatively quickly. However, there are conflicts with leader Lee, and issues about Ahn’s position after the merger, so how cooperative they can be is a variable.

Park: The merger will happen. This event puts Ahn’s politics to the test. He must be considering his own career path.

Bae: Rapid merger promotion is possible, but regarding Ahn’s role, it is expected to proceed slowly. Ahn wants to gain more, and the People Power Party will be wary of his growing influence.

What is your forecast for the local elections, which are less than three months away?

Bae: Since this presidential election was tight, the local elections, which are close in time, will also be split. It will be important whether the Democratic Party can hold Gyeonggi Province, which candidate Lee Jae-myung left.

Yoo: The local elections will be absolutely advantageous to the side that won the presidential election. The local election sentiment activates the desire to work with the new government early in its term. The People Power Party’s advantage is very likely to continue until the local elections.

Kim: What Yoon does in the next month is extremely important. It’s hard to say people have fully supported him, so if he takes reckless steps now, people might want to check him, and the local governments might go to the Democratic Party.

Park: Basically, the party with the president is in a favorable position. The variable is the personnel to be announced. If internal power struggles cause confusion, it won’t be good. Especially since the Democratic Party won big in the last local elections, their goal is to lose less, and the People Power Party has many opportunities to enter, so barring special problems, the People Power Party will be advantageous.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.