[Global Focus] Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Unites Europe... Will It Lead to EU Expansion?

From the top, Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany; Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; Emmanuel Macron, President of France
[Photo by Reuters AFP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] "Putin's war is Europe's 9/11."

The American political and diplomatic media outlet Foreign Policy defined Russia's invasion of Ukraine this way in a column dated the 28th of last month. The 9/11 attacks were a direct assault on the United States, and Ukraine is neither a member of the European Union (EU) nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), so this might seem like an excessive interpretation at first glance. However, the unprecedented response from the EU is comparable to the U.S. reaction during 9/11.

9/11 occurred in the first year of President George W. Bush's administration. According to the Pew Research Center, Bush's approval rating, which had hovered around the 50% range since his inauguration in January 2001, surged to 86% by the end of September. This was the highest point during his eight years in office. Some polls even showed his approval rating exceeding 90% at that time.

Just as the U.S. did during 9/11, Europe has shown unprecedented unity following Russia's invasion. This is why analysts say the EU, which faced a crisis of division after the UK's exit in 2016 (Brexit), is now experiencing a new turning point.

◆ "Entering a new era... The end of Germany's Ostpolitik" = Sylvie Koffman, the first female editor-in-chief of Le Monde, described a new Europe rising from the tragedy in Ukraine. To prove this, major EU leaders are reaffirming their new resolve.

Emmanuel Macron, President of France and holder of the rotating EU presidency, recently stated in a speech, "The war in Ukraine signifies a break with our continent and our era. Europe has shown unity and entered a new era. We must move forward."

Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister who triggered the EU's division crisis with Brexit, emphasized EU unity in a signed op-ed published in The New York Times (NYT) on the 6th. Johnson's article begins, "The Western unity in response to the heartbreaking situations in Ukraine over the past week has been impressive and inspiring." He argued that "(Europe) had relied on NATO and U.S. security guarantees" and that "we must restore deterrence against war." A leading daily newspaper described the Ukraine crisis as shattering illusions about Brexit.

The German government, the EU's powerhouse, also chose a dramatic change. Germany, a World War II perpetrator nation, has been a member of the EU and NATO and has strictly controlled arms exports to third countries outside NATO-equivalent countries, which include Australia, Japan, Switzerland, and New Zealand.

However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared on the 25th of last month, the day after Russia's invasion, that Germany would send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to Ukraine, an unprecedented move. Scholz emphasized, "Russia's invasion is a turning point," and "It is our duty to do our best to defend against Putin's invasion and help Ukraine." Dr. Stephan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Foreign Affairs Committee, said this "marks the end of Ostpolitik." Ostpolitik refers to the reconciliation policy with communist countries initiated by former German Chancellor Willy Brandt in 1969.

◆ Russia phobia vs. Western phobia = Signs of change are also appearing in Nordic countries that had been reluctant to join NATO. This is because the deep-rooted Russia phobia (Russo-phobia) has intensified following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A public opinion poll conducted by Finnish broadcaster YLE from the 23rd to 25th of last month showed, for the first time, a majority in favor of joining NATO. Fifty-three percent of respondents supported NATO membership. In YLE's last survey on NATO membership in 2017, only 19% were in favor. A poll released on the 4th by the Swedish tabloid Aftonbladet also showed 51% support for NATO membership, overwhelming the 27% opposition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on the 28th of last month that he had signed an application for EU membership and requested immediate approval through a special procedure. Georgia and Moldova also submitted EU membership applications on the 3rd. If these countries join the EU, it would be the first enlargement since Croatia's accession in 2013, about ten years ago.

However, it is uncertain whether these countries will be able to join the EU, as it could further provoke Russia. Russia justified its invasion of Ukraine by aiming to block EU and NATO membership. Like the West, Russia harbors deep fears of the expanding influence of the EU and NATO.

Stephen Walt, a political science professor at Harvard University, pointed out that the illusion of (Western) liberalism caused the Ukraine crisis. He argued that Western European countries, intoxicated by the victory of liberal democracy following the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, expanded their influence excessively, provoking Russia's backlash.

In fact, the EU rapidly expanded its influence in the mid-2000s. In May 2004, it admitted ten Eastern European countries at once?Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, and Malta?and later added Bulgaria and Romania in 2007. At that time, there were criticisms that these Eastern European countries were admitted prematurely without adequate preparation.

The 2008 global financial crisis put the brakes on EU expansion. Eastern European countries were hit hard by the crisis, with many receiving bailout funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leading to a rapid spread of skepticism about EU membership. As awareness grew that the flaws of capitalism had led to the financial crisis, some people in Eastern European countries even began to long for the socialist era. Since the financial crisis, Croatia has been the only Eastern European country to join the EU.

The EU, burdened by the prospect of direct confrontation with Russia, secretly hoped Ukraine would serve as a buffer zone to maintain tense relations with Russia. However, contrary to the EU's wishes, Ukraine steadily pursued EU membership after impeaching pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, which Putin could no longer tolerate. Putin's actions, which have already caused thousands of casualties, are unforgivable, but a compromise between the West and Russia is necessary to prevent a greater tragedy.

◆ Will Ukraine become the second Afghanistan? = Meanwhile, Foreign Policy analyzed that if the war prolongs, Ukraine could become the second Afghanistan. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 but was defeated after ten years in 1989. Afghanistan remains a painful memory for the Soviet Union, often called Russia's Vietnam. Foreign Policy noted that Ukraine's territory is the second largest in Europe and that it is receiving full Western support, suggesting that Ukraine could become Russia's second Afghanistan.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.