[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] US-ROK Joint Military Exercise Set for April... Possibility of North Korean Provocation

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise (Combined Command Post Training, CCPT) scheduled for the first half of this year is expected to be postponed until after April. Originally planned for March, the delay has become inevitable due to the spread of the Omicron variant and the presidential election schedule overlapping.

On the 9th, a government official said, "We are currently negotiating with the U.S. side for April, but there is a high possibility that the exercise will be scaled down," adding, "It may be difficult to conduct the Phase 2 Full Operational Capability (FOC) evaluation, which is one of the conditions for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), so the current administration may not be able to set the timing for the OPCON transfer."

So far, the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises have only conducted 'FOC evaluation rehearsals.' The South Korean military's position is that the FOC evaluation must be conducted during the first half of this year’s exercise for South Korea and the U.S. to set a 'target year' for the OPCON transfer.

However, the spread of COVID-19 is not easing. In the South Korean military, the number of new COVID-19 cases has recorded triple digits for ten consecutive days as of the 7th. As of the 9th, the daily additional confirmed cases within the military were 416, following 466 the previous day, marking two consecutive days in the 400s. Nearly 200 new COVID-19 cases were also reported in the U.S. Forces Korea from the 25th to the 31st of last month.

The South Korea-U.S. joint exercise is conducted as a computer simulation-based command post exercise (CPX) without a large-scale outdoor field training exercise (FTX). However, from the U.S. military side, not only U.S. Forces Korea but also staff officers dispatched from the U.S. mainland to evaluate the training situation inevitably pose a burden.

From the week before the CCPT, the South Korean military conducts Crisis Management Staff Training (CMST), which serves as a preliminary rehearsal. During this period, the movement of participating soldiers is completely restricted. Overlapping with the presidential election, this may cause difficulties in soldiers exercising their voting rights.

Some point out that if the South Korea-U.S. joint exercise is postponed to April, it could coincide with the birthday of Kim Il-sung, the Day of the Sun (April 15), potentially giving North Korea a pretext for provocations.

This year marks the 110th anniversary of the Day of the Sun. North Korea, which attaches special significance to milestone years such as 5-year and 10-year anniversaries, has declared that this year’s Day of the Sun and the Day of the Shining Star will be commemorated as a "great victory festival shining in the history of the motherland." North Korea fired missiles seven times last month in a 'relay show of force,' raising the likelihood of additional provocations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.