[Akyeong Poll] 2030 Generation Votes in Favor of 'Jongbuse Tax Relief'... "House Prices Will Rise Next Year"

All Age Groups Except 40s Unite in Calling for "Comprehensive Real Estate Tax Relief"
Government Taxation Seen as Inappropriate Extending to Non-Gangnam Areas
Only 12% of 20s Expect House Prices to Fall Next Year

The public opinion survey on major economic policies conducted by Asia Economy on the 7th revealed a significant gap between the government's perception and that of the public.

In particular, there was a large perception gap between the government and public opinion in the real estate policy sector. This is because the majority favored easing the comprehensive real estate holding tax (종합부동산세), which the government emphasized is paid by only 2% of the population. This reflects backlash against the fact that not only multi-homeowners but also many single-homeowners outside the Gangnam area became subject to this tax due to the sharp rise in housing prices, as well as the perception that taxing ‘unrealized gains’ is inappropriate.

Notably, the younger generation in their 20s and 30s also showed support for easing the comprehensive real estate holding tax. They also had a higher approval rate for easing capital gains tax compared to other age groups. Furthermore, their responses regarding next year’s housing price outlook showed a higher proportion expecting prices to remain similar or rise compared to other age groups. This again contrasts with the government’s expectation that housing prices will stabilize.

◇ "Lower the comprehensive real estate tax, strengthen capital gains tax" = According to the survey results, while the majority favored easing the comprehensive real estate holding tax, more respondents opposed easing the capital gains tax criteria.

Specifically, support for easing the comprehensive real estate holding tax was dominant in all age groups except those in their 40s. Although nationwide housing prices surged this year, resulting in increased asset values for homeowners, this is interpreted as backlash against policies that increased tax burdens based on unrealized gains. According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s ‘2021 Housing Comprehensive Real Estate Tax Multi-Homeowners and Corporations Proportion’ data, among 480,000 Seoul residents who received housing-related comprehensive real estate tax notices this year, 60.4% (290,000 people) were single-homeowners. Additionally, one in five Seoul homeowners paid the comprehensive real estate tax this year, and the proportion of taxpayers has doubled compared to three years ago. Especially with the anticipated triple increase next year in assessment standards such as official property prices, fair market value ratios, and taxable value realization rates, concerns over tax burdens are growing.

On the other hand, opposition to easing capital gains tax was expressed across all age groups, showing an opposite stance to the comprehensive real estate tax. This is interpreted as a desire to maintain measures to block speculative demand by multi-homeowners. However, those who were unsure accounted for a double-digit percentage (12.4% overall), and when combined with supporters (36.0%), the total was not significantly different from the opposition (51.6%).

◇ Higher rejection of the comprehensive real estate tax among 2030s than 40s = A notable point in this survey is the high proportion of the 2030 generation favoring easing the current government’s tax regulation policies. Among respondents aged 18-29 (hereafter 20s), 45% supported easing the comprehensive real estate holding tax, the second highest approval rate after those aged 60 and above (47.0%). The gap with opposition (30.6%) was 14.4 percentage points, the largest among all age groups. Those in their 30s also showed higher support (43.7%) than opposition (42.4%) for easing the comprehensive real estate tax. The only age group with more opposition than support was those in their 40s, with 50.1% opposing and 39.3% supporting.

Regarding easing capital gains tax, opposition was generally higher, but perceptions varied by age group. Support was highest among those aged 60 and above at 40.0%, followed by those in their 30s (37.4%) and 20s (37.0%). This is analyzed to be influenced by the relatively higher home purchases by younger generations this year. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, the proportion of 2030 buyers of Seoul apartments averaged 42% through September this year, up 6 percentage points from 36% during the same period last year.

◇ Government assures stability, but over half of 20s expect prices to rise = Regarding next year’s housing prices, responses expecting prices to fall (28.1%) slightly outnumbered those expecting prices to rise (27.9%). The largest proportion (38.9%) expected prices to remain similar.

However, respondents in their 20s were notable for their higher expectation of housing price increases next year. More than half (56.2%) predicted prices would rise compared to this year, the highest among all age groups. Only 11.8% of 20s expected prices to fall. This is interpreted as reflecting a psychological expectation that ‘housing prices must rise’ because many young buyers have purchased homes with ‘all-in’ loans amid the sharp price increases.

An industry insider commented, "Since younger people generally have a lower equity ratio, they would suffer serious damage if housing prices fall," adding, "This psychological concern may increase their desire for housing price rises."

How the survey was conducted

This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-Gi Korea Consulting and conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and older on the 4th and 5th of this month, with 1,012 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.3%. The survey method was 100% wireless ARS using virtual mobile phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.