[AKYUNG Poll] Election Probability: Yoon 46.9% Lee 38.7%

Yoon Surpasses Lee in Multilateral Race
High Public Support for Regime Change
People Power Candidate Selection Convention
Prolonged Daejangdong Allegations

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, was found to be ahead of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, in both multi-candidate matchups and winning probability surveys. In the multi-candidate matchup, Yoon received 41.4% and Lee 33.2%, while in winning probability, Yoon had 46.9% and Lee 38.7%, both showing a difference outside the margin of error (8.2 percentage points). This appears to be influenced by a combination of the People Power Party primary convention effect, strengthened public opinion for regime change, and prolonged disputes over the Daejang-dong preferential treatment allegations.

When asked who has the highest 'possibility' of ultimately winning the presidency regardless of candidate support, 46.9% chose Yoon, and 38.7% chose Lee. Following were Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party (3.0%), Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party (1.3%), and Kim Dong-yeon, chairman of the New Wave party preparatory committee (0.8%). 'Other figures' accounted for 2.5%, and 'Don’t know/No answer' 6.8%.

By gender, men predicted the winning probabilities of Yoon (47.3%) and Lee (42.7%) to be relatively similar, but women expected Yoon’s winning probability (46.7%) to be 12 percentage points higher than Lee’s (34.7%). By age group, Yoon’s winning probability was seen as higher among those aged 18?29 (41.5%), in their 50s (50.7%), and 60 and above (62.3%), while those in their 30s (46.4%) and 40s (58.5%) expected Lee’s winning probability to be higher.

Meanwhile, support rates for third-zone candidates were somewhat higher than their winning probabilities. Ahn, whose winning probability was below 3%, had a support rate of 5.2%, Sim 3.0%, and Kim 1.7%. This suggests that while voters prefer candidates with higher chances of winning, some centrist voters also psychologically support the 'third zone.' In the multi-candidate matchup support survey, Yoon was most preferred among those aged 18?29 (31.2%), in their 50s (44.9%), and 60 and above (60.1%). He led in regions such as Seoul (49.9%), Daejeon·Sejong·Chungcheong (46.2%), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (55.5%), Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (44.3%), and Gangwon·Jeju (41.4%). Lee, on the other hand, had higher preference than Yoon among those in their 30s (34.9%), 40s (52.8%), and in Gyeonggi·Incheon (40.6%), Gwangju·Jeonnam·Jeonbuk (59.6%).

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 6th to 7th of this month targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,005 respondents and an overall response rate of 6.7%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.