China's Q3 GDP Up 4.9% YoY... "Below Expectations Due to Energy Supply Shortage" (Update)

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] China's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) fell short of expectations. Analysts suggest that the global energy supply shortage, along with the Evergrande Group-led real estate market crisis within China, is dampening economic growth.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 18th, China's third-quarter GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year. This was below experts' forecast of 5.0% and down from the previous quarter's GDP growth rate of 7.9%.

China's September industrial production index rose by 3.1% compared to the same month last year, which was below the experts' expected 3.8%.

China's retail sales in September increased by 4.4% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.5%.

The reason behind these major economic indicators falling short of expectations is attributed to the real estate market entering a downturn phase due to the Evergrande Group bankruptcy crisis, coupled with power shortages caused by the energy supply crisis, which is weakening industrial activity.

Bloomberg reported, "After a sharp economic rebound following last year's COVID-19 pandemic, China's third-quarter GDP growth rate was expected to be relatively low due to the base effect. Nevertheless, as the energy crisis intensifies and the real estate market shock continues, experts are lowering their forecasts for China's GDP growth this year."

Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, stated the day before, "There is a somewhat easing atmosphere in growth momentum," but added, "However, the economic recovery is expected to continue."

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also said in a speech last week, "China has overcome various challenges faced this year," and expressed confidence that "we can achieve the economic growth targets set for this year overall."

According to Bloomberg, experts believe the Chinese government remains optimistic about this year's economic outlook and do not expect authorities to implement large-scale quantitative easing policies to stimulate the economy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.