'Honam's Lee Jae-myung'... With Jeong Se-gyun falling and Chu Mi-ae rising, the prevailing theory wavers

Akyung Poll Ho-nam Support Rate, Lee Jae-myung 36.4% vs Lee Nak-yeon 36.3%
"Choo Mi-ae's Rise Means Lee Jae-myung's Share Decreases"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, who had comfortably maintained the first place in the recent regional primaries, has encountered difficulties ahead of the Honam primary. Looking solely at Honam, the poll results show a close race between former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, indicating a tough battle ahead.

Moreover, there is widespread analysis that former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun's declaration of 'serving without seeking office' will work in favor of former leader Lee. Additionally, the rise of former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae, who, like Governor Lee, bases her support on reform-minded citizens, could negatively impact Lee Jae-myung's vote count.

On the 25th, the votes of 127,826 delegates and party members from Gwangju and Jeonnam will be counted, followed by 76,191 from Jeonbuk on the 26th. Honam alone has 204,017 voters, more than Seoul (144,483) and Gyeonggi (164,696). According to a Democratic Party candidate suitability survey commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by WinG Korea Consulting on the 11th and 12th (100% wireless, sample size 1,022, response rate 7.4%, 95% confidence level with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points), Lee Jae-myung's support rate in Honam is 36.4%, while former leader Lee Nak-yeon is at 36.3%, showing almost no difference.

This gap, which was over 10 percentage points at 34.5% and 23.3% respectively in the same survey conducted on the 21st and 22nd of last month, has disappeared. Since Lee Jae-myung's support rate in Honam has not changed significantly, it is interpreted that the support from other candidates besides the two leading ones has shifted toward former leader Lee.

Honam is traditionally regarded as a stronghold of Democratic Party support. This influences not only the voting results of party members in the region but also the votes of Honam natives residing in other areas. Those who supported former Prime Minister Chung are analyzed to lean more toward former leader Lee than Governor Lee. Former leader Lee is from Yeonggwang, Jeonnam, and former Prime Minister Chung is from Jinan, Jeonbuk; the fact that former Prime Minister Chung has continuously pointed out Governor Lee's ethical issues may also play a role.

Riding a rising trend, People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo said on MBC Radio that day, "I think the race has become confused due to candidate Chung Sye-kyun's withdrawal," adding, "Looking at the Honam primary, the outcome will probably become clear." When the host asked if former leader Lee would make it to the final election, he replied, "Yes."

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Honam will support Governor Lee, just as it supported the late former President Roh Moo-hyun from Yeongnam in the 2002 Democratic Party primary.

There is also analysis that the situation where former Prime Minister Chung is declining and former Minister Chu is rising is unfavorable to Governor Lee. This is because Governor Lee and former Minister Chu share a relatively strong reformist image as a common foundation. Former Minister Chu recently said on a broadcast, "Chu Mi-ae's votes should go to Chu Mi-ae. They should not stick to Lee Jae-myung." This statement aims to expand her momentum after rising to third place in cumulative vote share.

Yoon Tae-gon, director of the 'Agenda and Strategy Group The Moa,' said on CBS Radio that day, "The rise of candidate Chu Mi-ae means a reduction in the share of candidate Lee Jae-myung," adding, "Whether one advances to the runoff is determined by the total of second to fifth place. Given the nature of their support bases, Chu's supporters are likely to overlap more with Lee Jae-myung's supporters than with former leader Lee Nak-yeon's."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.