[AKYUNG Poll] Both Ruling Party Big 2 Decline Amid Negatives, Yoon Seok-yeol on Downward Trend

Lee Jae-myung down 2.1%p, Lee Nak-yeon down 1.8%p... Park Yong-jin slightly up, Chu Mi-ae steady
Yoon Seok-youl down 4.1%p, Hong Joon-pyo slightly up

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The presidential election landscape is shaking up. The mutual negative battles between the ruling party's Big 2, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, have led to a simultaneous drop in approval ratings. In the conservative opposition, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl still leads, but his pace has noticeably declined. Instead, existing politicians are gaining momentum.

◆ Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon Both Decline... Surge in Swing Voters = According to a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 7th and 8th (100% automated response via virtual mobile numbers), among six Democratic Party presidential candidates, Governor Lee received the highest support at 33.3%. Former leader Lee recorded 20.6%, followed by Representative Park Yong-jin (6.9%), former Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (6.2%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (3.1%), and Representative Kim Du-kwan (1.0%). The two-strong structure remains, but compared to the previous survey (July 24-25), Governor Lee dropped by 2.1 percentage points and former leader Lee by 1.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, Representative Park saw a slight increase of 0.8 percentage points, and former Minister Choo maintained a similar level of support.

Notably, the undecided group who responded that there is no suitable candidate for the next presidential election or that they do not know increased sharply from 19.5% in the previous survey to 25.7% this time. It can be seen that a significant number of people who withdrew support for Governor Lee and former leader Lee have been absorbed into the undecided group. On the 8th, Governor Lee declared a halt to negative campaigning at a press conference, stating, "Many citizens are also showing disappointment. During regional tours, I heard a lot of harsh criticism that 'the Democratic Party is having too severe internal fights.'" This poll result confirms that public opinion has turned cold, as he said.

Especially among those who responded that they have no preferred party or do not know, called the 'moderate or non-affiliated group,' 47.7% did not support any Democratic Party candidate. This is a sharp rise compared to 33.7% in the previous survey. On the other hand, only 2.7% of Democratic Party supporters did not express a preferred candidate. This means that even if the intra-party competition heats up, they are seriously considering which candidate is better.

However, for the Democratic Party, which regards moderate expansion as an essential task for winning the presidential election, this is a worrying result. The controversies have included regional sentiments, past insults, positions during the impeachment of the late President Roh Moo-hyun, drunk driving, and recently even allegations of gang involvement. It appears more like a turf war than verification.

◆ Yoon Seok-youl's Dominance Also Shaken... Spillover Benefits Dispersed to Hong Joon-pyo and Others = In the conservative opposition, former Prosecutor General Yoon received the highest support at 24.3%, followed by People Power Party Representative Hong Joon-pyo at 17.3%. Next were former Representative Yoo Seung-min (10.2%), former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung (9.1%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (5.5%), and People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (3.6%).

Yoon’s approval rating dropped by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey, while Representatives Hong, Yoo, and former Chairman Choi showed slight increases. Yoon has established himself as the dominant candidate in the conservative opposition based on his symbolic stance against the Moon Jae-in administration. However, since declaring his political participation at the end of June, he has been criticized for lacking concrete policies or visions, and his repeated verbal controversies, which are distant from public sentiment, have shaken his dominant position.

Following remarks such as allowing 120 hours of work per week and selling substandard food to those in difficulty, on the 4th, an interview with Busan Ilbo revealed his statement that "radiation leakage basically did not happen," causing a stir. Yoon’s campaign has explained that the actual remarks were different and the intent was misunderstood, but the repeated verbal controversies seem to be causing disappointment.

It can also be seen as a reaction from Democratic Party supporters or a check on the leading candidate. Among those who support the Democratic Party, only 5.4% considered Yoon suitable as a presidential candidate, while Hong received 24.5%. Among People Power Party supporters, Yoon led with 54.7%, followed by former Chairman Choi (15.3%), Hong (10.8%), Yoo (4.1%), and Governor Won (3.5%). At least among People Power Party supporters, Yoon still maintains his position as the dominant candidate. Yoon has also stirred controversy by not participating in the so-called ‘One Team’ event led by People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok and showing an independent course.

◆ Presidential Big 3 in a Neck-and-Neck Race Within Margin of Error = In a hypothetical one-on-one race assuming the final candidates are selected through the primaries of both parties, Governor Lee received 41.8% and former Prosecutor General Yoon 41.3%. The difference is minimal within the margin of error, so it should be seen as a close race. Until the end of June, Yoon was ahead by about 8 percentage points. This is the first time in Asia Economy’s regular polls that Governor Lee has led within the margin of error in a one-on-one race against Yoon.

Former leader Lee, in a hypothetical race against Yoon, led by about 2.4 percentage points with 45.0%. Although he is behind Governor Lee when all Democratic candidates are considered, he shows higher competitiveness in one-on-one races. In the one-on-one race against Yoon, Democratic Party supporters gave 72.3% support to Governor Lee and 81.7% to former leader Lee. This suggests that the support base of other Democratic candidates outside the Big 2 may lean more toward former leader Lee than Governor Lee.

Former Chairman Choi, after retirement, quickly joined the People Power Party and declared his presidential candidacy, but did not show a noticeable rise in support. In a hypothetical one-on-one race, Governor Lee led with 44.0% against former Chairman Choi’s 36.4%, showing a gap outside the margin of error. Former leader Lee also led with 45.7% against former Chairman Choi’s 37.9%.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on the 7th and 8th targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over, with 1,006 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.0%. The survey method was wireless ARS with 100% virtual mobile numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.