US-ROK Joint Military Exercises to Proceed as Scheduled

[Asia Economy reporters Ryu Jeong-min and Yang Nak-gyu, military specialist] The military has effectively begun the controversial South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, which have been at the center of debates over postponement and continuation. A military official stated on the 6th, "South Korea and the U.S. have broadly agreed to proceed with the second half of the South Korea-U.S. joint command post exercise as planned, and starting this week, we will begin computer simulation checks to prepare for the Crisis Management Staff Training (CMST)."

◆ Considering the multilayered context including the South Korea-U.S. alliance... Blue House maintains stance to proceed with the exercises = The regularly scheduled second half joint command post exercise between South Korea and the U.S. is set to take place from the 16th to the 26th. Prior to that, the CMST, which serves as a rehearsal, will begin on the 10th. Proceeding with the CMST as planned means that the main joint command post exercise will also be conducted as scheduled. However, some adjustments to the scale of the exercises before the 16th remain possible.

This move by the military is related to the importance of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises from political, diplomatic, and military perspectives. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reportedly expressed his determination to proceed with the exercises during a phone call with South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook on the 3rd. The U.S. side’s desire to continue the joint exercises stems from the fact that dispatched U.S. military officers, including newly appointed Commander of United States Forces Korea Paul LaCamera, view it as a crucial opportunity to understand the situation on the Korean Peninsula, its geographical characteristics, and the combined defense posture. From the South Korean government and military’s standpoint, it is also significant for verification related to the transfer of wartime operational control. If the exercises are postponed, the verification of the Future Combined Forces Command’s Full Operational Capability (FOC) could be delayed again.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance aspect also underpins the government’s emphasis on proceeding with the exercises. The joint exercises symbolize cooperation between the troops of both countries. The Blue House, which will make the final decision on postponement or cancellation, emphasizes the ‘system.’ Fundamentally, it is a matter to be decided based on consultations between South Korea and the U.S. Additionally, the Blue House is paying attention to factors such as the COVID-19 situation, heatwaves, and the operational control issue. This suggests that while the exercises themselves will proceed, decisions to minimize the scale in accordance with the overall environment are possible.

◆ North Korea likely to adjust provocation level according to exercise intensity = South Korea and the U.S. are expected to officially announce whether the joint exercises will proceed on the 15th. The Ministry of National Defense also announced the first half exercises just one day before they began, on March 7th. At that time, the exercises were conducted without outdoor maneuver drills. However, with strengthened measures to prevent COVID-19 infections during this exercise period, there are forecasts that efficient training simulating wartime situations may not be possible.

If the joint exercises proceed as planned, North Korea is likely to assess the intensity of the exercises and then engage in provocations. Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea and North Korea’s chief official for inter-Korean affairs, recently warned in a statement that if the South Korea-U.S. exercises are conducted as planned, it would be a "boring prelude." If the joint exercises are significantly scaled down, North Korea is expected to carry out provocations such as short-range ballistic missile test launches. Conversely, if the exercises are conducted at normal scale, the possibility of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test launch cannot be ruled out.

North Korea revealed new SLBM presumed missiles labeled ‘Pukguksong-4ㅅ’ and ‘Pukguksong-5ㅅ’ at the 75th anniversary military parade of the Workers’ Party in October last year and at the 8th Party Congress parade in January this year, respectively. However, test launches of these missiles have not yet been conducted.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.