Suga Aiming for Reelection... Japan's Ruling LDP Likely to Hold Leadership Election on Next Month 29th

Dissolution of the House of Representatives as a Variable

▲Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister of Japan [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] As the term of Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister of Japan and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), approaches its expiration on September 30, the internal party process to elect the next president has begun.

According to Kyodo News on the 4th, the ruling LDP has announced the presidential election for the 17th of next month and is reportedly considering holding the voting and counting on the 29th of the same month.

The LDP Presidential Election Management Committee held its first meeting the day before and decided to officially finalize this plan on the 26th.

Unlike last September’s election, which was conducted through a vote by the joint parliamentary caucus (House of Representatives + House of Councillors + representatives of 47 regional branches), this LDP presidential election will also include voting by party members and supporters.

According to LDP regulations, the voting and counting date for this presidential election must be set between September 20 and 29, with the 29th being the most likely date under consideration.

However, if Prime Minister Suga dissolves the House of Representatives ahead of the LDP presidential election, the presidential election is expected to be postponed until after the general election to elect the House of Representatives.

Kyodo News reported, "The term of the House of Representatives lasts until October 21, making a 'September dissolution - October general election' scenario highly likely."

It is known that Prime Minister Suga’s strategy is to dissolve the House of Representatives before the ruling party’s presidential election, lead the general election to victory, and then run as the sole candidate in the presidential election to secure re-election without opposition.

In Japan’s parliamentary system, the leader of the party that wins the House of Representatives election is elected as prime minister by the National Diet. If Prime Minister Suga succeeds in both winning the general election and being re-elected as the ruling party president, he will continue to serve as prime minister.

Initially, Suga planned to win the dissolution general election by successfully hosting the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics (July 23 - September 5), but the spread of COVID-19 during the Olympics has shaken this plan.

Due to the spread of COVID-19, vaccine supply shortages, and dissatisfaction over the decision to proceed with the Olympics, the approval rating of the Suga Cabinet has dropped to its lowest since its launch last September, according to major media polls.

In the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election last month, which was seen as a preliminary battle for the general election, the LDP was effectively defeated, raising skepticism within some LDP circles about making Prime Minister Suga the "face of the election."

Kyodo News also reported that within the party, contrary to Prime Minister Suga’s intentions, there are emerging calls to hold the LDP presidential election first and the general election afterward.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.