Power Reserve Margin Drops to Lowest Amid Heatwave... How to Handle Next Week's Record-Breaking Heat?

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Joo Sang-don] As the heatwave continues with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius daily, cooling demand has increased, causing the expected power reserve margin on the 15th to drop to the lowest level this summer. The previous day's power usage recorded the highest level this summer, prompting the government to declare an emergency by deploying reserve resources.

The Korea Power Exchange forecasted that the maximum power demand between 4 and 5 p.m. would be 89,500 MW, with a supply reserve margin of 9.0%. A representative from the Power Exchange stated, "If the government deploys reserve resources, the supply reserve margin could be higher than the forecast," but added, "However, the reserve margin during today's peak hours (4-5 p.m.) is expected to be the lowest this summer."

Due to the nationwide heatwave, the previous day's maximum power demand reached 88,087 MW at 5 p.m., an increase of 499 MW compared to the day before (86,673 MW). However, by increasing supply capacity from 95,966 MW to 97,475 MW, the supply reserve margin slightly rose from 10.1% to 10.7%.

Nevertheless, considering that the Power Exchange initially forecasted a 9.6% supply reserve margin in the morning but lowered it to 9.1% during the daytime when power usage surged, it is highly likely that the power reserve margin on the 15th will be even lower than the previous day. However, the reserve capacity stands at 8,053 MW, which is considered 'normal.' If the reserve capacity falls below 5,500 MW, the first stage of the crisis alert, 'Ready,' is issued, and if it falls below 4,500 MW, the 'Attention' stage is declared.

The real concern is next week when the heatwave is expected to worsen. The Korea Meteorological Administration forecasted rain nationwide on the 18th and 19th, followed by even hotter temperatures starting on the 20th. The maximum temperature in Seoul is expected to reach 34 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days from the 20th to the 22nd. On the 14th, when the highest power demand of this summer was recorded, Seoul's maximum temperature was 33.5 degrees, and on the 15th, it was 33 degrees.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy projected the maximum power demand for this summer to be 94.4 GW (upper estimate) in the second week of August, with a supply reserve margin of 5.1%. The lowest reserve margin is expected in the fourth week of July, dropping to 4.2%. These figures were forecasted using a temperature of 30.2 degrees Celsius, which is the third highest average temperature over 72 hours before the peak day in the past 30 years. If temperatures rise above this, power demand will inevitably increase accordingly.

An official from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said, "Although the reserve margin is low at around 10%, it is not the absolute limit. If the reserve capacity falls below 5.5 GW, it will become a supply and demand crisis, so we will utilize the reserve resources already secured to ensure there are no problems in power supply before reaching that point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.