US-ROK Joint Military Exercises Likely to Be Further Scaled Down Again

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As COVID-19 cases surge among South Korean and U.S. troops, the scale of the second half of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises is expected to be significantly reduced. If the exercises are scaled down, it will effectively make it impossible to fulfill President Moon Jae-in’s campaign pledge to transfer wartime operational control (OPCON) during his term. The reduction in exercises is not only due to the COVID-19 situation but also appears to consider the potential impact on inter-Korean relations.

A military official said on the 14th, "South Korea and the U.S. are closely consulting on the timing and other aspects of the exercises by comprehensively considering various conditions such as the COVID-19 situation, combined defense posture, conditions for OPCON transfer, and diplomatic efforts for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and permanent peace settlement."

The military expected that herd immunity would be formed when about 510,000 troops, accounting for approximately 91% of the 555,000 South Korean soldiers, receive the COVID-19 vaccine early next month. However, as of the 14th, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases among U.S. Forces Korea has exceeded 1,000, and South Korean forces have about 1,150 cases, showing no signs of the infection trend slowing down.

Meanwhile, the exercises are scheduled to begin on the 10th of next month, but the scale and format have not yet been decided. It is highly likely that, as in the first half of the year, the exercises will be minimized in the form of simulations. If this happens, the Full Operational Capability (FOC) verification of the future Combined Forces Command for OPCON transfer will not be conducted.

There are also political reasons. Thirty-five lawmakers from the ruling coalition urged in February, "The Ministry of National Defense explains the exercises as defensive combined command post drills, but North Korea, including Chairman Kim Jong-un, is strongly opposing them," calling for a postponement of the exercises. In response, Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, Unification Minister Lee In-young, and National Security Office Director Suh Hoon also joined the calls for scaling down or postponing the exercises, citing the impact on inter-Korean relations. Jeong Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, mentioned halting the exercises. President Moon Jae-in also said in May, considering the COVID-19 outbreak and various circumstances, "It will be difficult to conduct large-scale exercises."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.