Tokyo University Research Team "Olympic Crowd Increase by 10% Raises Confirmed Cases by 3.3 Times"

Tokyo Shimbun Survey Results
60.2% of Respondents Say "Tokyo Olympics Should Be Canceled"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Amid prevailing public opposition to the Tokyo Olympics within Japan, a study has revealed that if the event proceeds as planned, COVID-19 cases could surge dramatically.

According to NHK on the 25th, a research team led by Associate Professor Daisuke Tanaka of the University of Tokyo predicted the trend of confirmed cases if the Tokyo Olympics were held, based on data secured up to the 16th of this month.

The study assumed the current COVID-19 state of emergency would be extended until mid-next month and that 600,000 people would be vaccinated daily.

It was analyzed that even if approximately 105,000 athletes and officials enter Japan during the event, with half of them fully vaccinated, there is still a possibility of a sharp increase in confirmed cases due to the Olympics.

The research team projected that if crowds increase by 10% due to cheering or active economic activities during the event, the daily new confirmed cases in Tokyo in early September would reach 2,024, about 3.3 times the expected 617 cases if the Olympics were canceled.

However, the number of cases directly caused by athletes and officials arriving from overseas was estimated to be about 15 per day in Tokyo.

If the increase in crowds due to the Olympics is limited to 2%, the daily new confirmed cases in Tokyo in early September are expected to be 858, approximately 1.4 times the number if the Olympics were canceled.

It should be noted that this analysis excluded the impact of the highly infectious variant virus originating from India.

Concerns and opposition to holding the Tokyo Olympics continue in Japan.

In a telephone survey conducted by the Tokyo Shimbun and others on Tokyo metropolitan voters from the 22nd to 23rd, 60.2% of respondents stated that the Tokyo Olympics should be canceled.

Additionally, 78.5% of respondents evaluated that COVID-19 vaccination is not proceeding smoothly, indicating high dissatisfaction with the Japanese government's quarantine measures.

On the 24th, 132 current and former members of local assemblies from the so-called Tama area, a western region of Tokyo excluding the 23 special wards and island areas, sent a petition to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike requesting the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.