China's Q1 Economic Growth Rate Expected to Increase Up to 22%

Rising Expectations Ahead of China's GDP Announcement on the 16th... Forecasted Growth of 16-22%
Strong Growth Momentum in Exports and Various Indicators

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] Ahead of the announcement of China's Q1 economic growth rate on the 16th, expectations for the Chinese economy are rising, with forecasts suggesting growth of up to 22%. In January last year, due to the outbreak of COVID-19, the Chinese economy experienced an unprecedented contraction of minus 6.8% in Q1 last year.

Chinese economic media Caixin reported on the 15th that a survey of GDP forecasts by 16 domestic and international economic institutions predicted growth ranging from 16% to 22% year-on-year. Caixin added that the average forecast was 19%.

Expectations for China's economic growth are based on various recently released economic indicators. According to the General Administration of Customs, China's Q1 exports increased by 49% year-on-year to $709.98 billion. Imports reached $593.62 billion, up 28.0% compared to the same period last year. This indicates that production, including manufacturing, is operating normally.

In fact, last month, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose 1.3 points from the previous month to 51.9, showing an expansion phase in the economy. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also surged 4.9 points from the previous month to 56.3. Retail sales, which gauge the vitality of the domestic market including consumption, are also on the rise. Retail sales through February this year increased by 33.8% year-on-year to 6.9737 trillion yuan. Retail sales for March, which will be announced along with GDP, are also expected to have improved.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated that indicators such as exports and industrial production are coming out higher than expected, and considering base effects, it forecasted 19.5% growth for Q1 this year.

Wang Tao, Chief Economist in charge of China at USB, said, "The growth momentum is strong, as seen in the rebound of the Manufacturing PMI in March," and predicted that industrial production in March could rise about 19% year-on-year.

A representative of a Korean company operating in China said, "Compared to last year, the Chinese economy is visibly more vibrant," and added, "The results could exceed the Chinese leadership's initial GDP target of 'above 6%' for this year."

Meanwhile, the state-run People's Daily reported on the same day that electricity consumption in Q1 this year reached 1.9219 trillion kWh, up 21.2% year-on-year. Of this, electricity consumption in the secondary industry increased by 24.1% year-on-year to 1.2625 trillion kWh. The People's Daily added that the increase in industrial electricity consumption indicates that the economy is recovering.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.