[The Editors' Verdict] Political Realignment and the Deja Vu of Constitutional Amendment

Lee Mok-hee, Asia Economy Senior Correspondent

The opposition party won the by-elections for the Seoul and Busan mayoral seats. Now, the political spotlight is shifting to the presidential election in March next year. The opposition party, cornered by consecutive defeats, has staged a revival. On top of that, the emergence of a strong presidential candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, is stirring the atmosphere for a familiar scenario in the presidential race.

In the latter half of a term, the ruling party’s grip weakens. Divisions are sensed between the president and prominent presidential candidates. Constitutional amendment is always a card kept in mind by the ruling faction. The opposition, lacking a central figure, is even more complicated. Various attempts at opposition party mergers and splits are being explored. With 11 months left until the presidential election, the sparks of constitutional amendment and political realignment could flare up at any moment.

First, the constitutional amendment. Under the single-term presidential system, a recurring formula exists. As the term progresses, desires for a parliamentary system, a dual executive system, or a decentralized presidential system begin to stir within the ruling party. However, a leading presidential candidate within the ruling party opposes this. In the power struggle between the first and second figures of the ruling party, the future power holder has the advantage. In a place where lining up is customary, the voice of a candidate with a high chance of winning grows louder. This is the fundamental reason why the 1987 constitutional framework remains unbroken.

Usually, constitutional amendments were planned behind closed doors. Secret discussions took place within the core of power. Behind-the-scenes negotiations with the opposition were similar. However, a different pattern emerged during the Lee Myung-bak administration, in the 19th National Assembly. Politicians with little chance as presidential candidates and lawmakers disillusioned with the autocratic presidential system, whether ruling or opposition, raised calls for constitutional amendment, centered around those who found it difficult to enter the core of power again.

The political arena has now entered a situation ripe for the eruption of constitutional amendment debates. Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, and former Prosecutor General Yoon, who have emerged as leading figures of the ruling and opposition parties respectively, are not the undisputed leaders of their factions. Lawmakers from the Honam region within the ruling party, and opposition lawmakers centered around the Mapo Forum led by former lawmaker Kim Moo-sung, privately express strong desires for constitutional amendment. The problem is time. The schedule is tight to achieve constitutional amendment before the presidential election.

The second agenda is political realignment. The key to reshuffling the political map is former Prosecutor General Yoon. Joining the People Power Party, rallying the third zone, or even forming an alliance with the progressive camp?the options are broad. The political landscape will shake depending on what decision Yoon makes. The ruling party’s inner thoughts are also complicated. The recent by-election defeat has weakened former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon’s position. Yet, they hesitate to readily choose Governor Lee. Shaking up the scene is necessary to tame Lee, nurture pro-Moon presidential candidates, and try something new.

As the presidential election approaches, political realignment and constitutional amendment tend to move in tandem. The three-party merger and the DJP coalition are representative examples. In subsequent presidential elections, candidates proposed various forms of constitutional amendment pledges. Underneath lies a secret consensus with the incumbent president and alliances among presidential candidates. Currently, hardline groups on both the progressive and conservative sides are firmly entrenched. However, victory cannot be guaranteed without capturing the moderate vote. Progressive-moderate alliances, conservative-moderate alliances?the side that wins over the center wins. Both camps must move toward building coalition forces that share power.

A notable figure is Kim Jong-in, former emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party. The seasoned politician may pursue a parliamentary system again. While mentioning former Prosecutor General Yoon, his actual goal is constitutional amendment. Yoon is likely to be cautious about constitutional amendment after entering politics. Power-sharing without justification is unlikely to gain public sympathy. Governor Lee also finds it difficult to accept constitutional amendment before next year’s presidential election. Nevertheless, there is ample room for constitutional amendment plans to be embedded deep within political realignment. Even if not constitutional amendment, at least political realignment will be carried out on the basis of promises to share power. This is a point to watch closely.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.