Lee Hoseung, Chief of the Blue House Policy Office, "GDP to Recover to Pre-COVID Levels in Q2"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Lee Ho-seung, Chief of Policy at the Blue House, recently stated that our economy is showing a rapid recovery and that, barring any major shocks to the global economy, the domestic gross domestic product (GDP) will return to pre-COVID-19 levels in the second quarter.

On the afternoon of the 1st, Lee met with reporters at the Blue House Chuncheon Press Center and said, "Although the quarantine situation is difficult both domestically and internationally, our companies are increasing their market share by competing with other countries in overseas markets."

Referring to the March export-import trends announced that day, Lee mentioned that our export amount reached a record high of $53.8 billion for March and explained, "Not only the export amount but also in detail, automobiles, semiconductors, bio sectors, and the recovery in oil prices leading to a recovery in petroleum and petrochemicals are prominent, and fierce competition is taking place in major markets such as China, the United States, and Europe."

Regarding the fact that the business economic survey index exceeded 100, he analyzed, "Among our companies, those leading change are quickly adapting to the changing market along with rising stock prices," and added, "It can be evaluated that companies are operating with confidence about future business conditions."

Indicators showing improvement in the economic situation are also confirmed in the leading and coincident economic indices. The leading index, which had sharply declined in the first half of last year when COVID-19 was rampant, has already surpassed 100, and the coincident index is recently close to 100. Lee said, "If the coincident index follows the leading index, I expect the coincident index will soon exceed the baseline of 100."

However, he pointed out that the service sector has not fully recovered from the COVID shock. Explaining the trend of the industrial activity index, Lee said, "Since the second half of last year, production activity has been increasing, but while manufacturing has exceeded 100 and is at a considerably high level, the service sector is below the baseline," and stated, "Exports have recovered, but domestic demand and face-to-face service sectors have not fully recovered from the COVID shock."

He also pointed out that small business owners’ card sales have still not recovered to 2019 levels, calling this "the most difficult part of our economy," and said, "It is improving after the Lunar New Year holidays, and if quarantine levels improve, it will be possible to recover to previous levels."

Although employment conditions have not yet recovered, he forecasted an upward turn in March. Lee said, "Employment is a lagging indicator, so even if the economy improves, it improves 6 to 9 months later," and added, "Employment data for March will be released around mid-month, and March is likely to be close to positive or possibly turn positive."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.