[Confusing 20s Voter Sentiment Analysis] "Just Because I Dislike This Side, Doesn't Mean I'll Go to That Side"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] The unpredictable twenties. This unpredictability is fully demonstrated in this election as well. No matter how closely one examines the poll results, no clear 'pattern' emerges. What do they want in this election? With the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election just six days away, each campaign is focusing on attracting the votes of the 'floating voters' who have yet to decide on a candidate. In particular, the twenties, who have a higher proportion of floating voters than other age groups, are seen as the biggest variable in determining which candidate they will vote for. The proportion of voters in their twenties in this election is 19.2% of the total (about 1.62 million out of 8.43 million).

Asia Economy analyzed the voting tendencies of voters in their twenties based on seven polls (Table 1) conducted and released from March 24 to 31, right after the opposition unified candidate was decided (Note: This series of analyses is based not on statistical significance between detailed figures but rather on observing a kind of 'trend'). In six of the polls, the proportion of floating voters in their twenties was the highest among all age groups (Table 2). In particular, in the second poll, the percentage of those who currently have no preferred candidate or do not know was as high as 34% among voters in their twenties.

One clue to predicting the final decision of floating voters in their twenties is to examine whether their political ideology leans more toward progressivism or conservatism. Some voices interpret the current twenties as showing a strong conservative tendency similar to the elderly aged 60 and above, calling it a kind of '20-60s synchronization phenomenon.' Are voters in their twenties really as conservative as those in their sixties?

We examined the support rate trends for candidates Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon among voters in their twenties. The support rate for candidate Park among voters in their twenties was almost the lowest among all age groups. In four out of seven polls, voters in their twenties were the age group least supportive of candidate Park. In the remaining three polls, the support rate among voters in their twenties was slightly above or below the average. On the other hand, the situation was different for candidate Oh. The age group most unfavorable to candidate Oh was those in their forties. However, since the support rate for candidate Oh among voters in their twenties was not particularly high compared to the average, it cannot be said that he gained significant support from this age group. In other words, the likelihood of voters in their twenties voting for the Democratic Party candidate in this election has decreased compared to the past, but it is difficult to see that all voters in their twenties who left the Democratic Party have moved to the People Power Party candidate.

Adding the support rates of candidates Park Young-sun and Oh Se-hoon by age group confirms this phenomenon (Table 3). In the overall polls, the combined support rate for the two candidates ranges from as low as 78% to as high as 95%. However, the proportion of voters in their twenties who support either Park Young-sun or Oh Se-hoon was significantly lower than that. This means that many voters in their twenties support a third candidate or have no preferred candidate at all. If the two major parties fail to absorb the votes of voters in their twenties, what criteria will these voters use to approach the election? Many polls ask whether this election is about 'judging the government' or 'national stability.' If the perception among voters in their twenties leans toward judging the government, a significant portion of floating voters may lean toward the opposition side, such as candidate Oh, rather than candidate Park.

Voters in their twenties showed support for national stability at levels similar to or lower than other age groups, and support for judging the government was at a level comparable to other age groups (Table 4). Their views on real estate policies and controversies, as well as their evaluation criteria emphasizing 'policy promises,' were not significantly different from other age groups. In any case, it is clear that voters in their twenties, like other age groups, have a stronger perception toward judging the government rather than national stability. However, the idea of judging the government may lead to the behavior of 'not voting for the ruling party candidate,' but it does not necessarily translate to 'voting for the People Power Party candidate.' Comparing the low support rate for the People Power Party and the high proportion of floating voters among those in their twenties supports this observation (Table 5).

In summary, voters in their twenties prefer candidate Oh over candidate Park. However, this preference is not stronger than in other age groups. The reason for not supporting candidate Park is likely because they view this election as a judgment on the government. However, the relatively low support rate for candidate Oh and the People Power Party compared to other age groups, along with the high proportion of floating voters, suggests that voters in their twenties are 'the most' deliberative among all age groups about to whom they will give the 'key' to judge this government.

After polls showed candidate Park trailing candidate Oh, Park began to adopt a strategy of distancing herself from the current administration. If this strategy, which aligns with the above analysis, succeeds?meaning if floating voters in their twenties decide that 'it's better to vote for Park Young-sun than to support the People Power Party'?then Park's final support rate could increase from the current level. On the other hand, candidate Oh has not separately sent a logical message that it is meaningful to support him even without supporting the People Power Party. It is difficult to predict what final decision voters in their twenties who chose to be floating voters for various reasons will make based solely on a series of poll results and simple comparisons and analyses. The only clear point is that their 'generational consciousness' will significantly shake the election results. There is only one week left to move the hearts of voters in their twenties. Let's listen to their voices beyond the numbers.

Those of you who haven't decided yet... So what will you do?

On the 26th, ahead of the April 7 by-election, election posters of the Seoul mayoral candidates were posted on a street in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

We met voters in their twenties who have not yet decided on a candidate and asked, "Why haven't you decided yet?" and "What will you do going forward?"

"Candidates from major parties have disappointed me at least once, and new candidates haven't been verified. I think I'll decide based on how much they have solutions for real estate policies." Kim** (Office worker, 27)

"I think I'll vote after seeing policies that revive businesses and support workers." Kim** (Job seeker, 29)

"I want to look at the person rather than the party, but there is no one. So maybe I should just look at the party... haha." Park** (Office worker, 27)

"*I think I'll just vote based on the party." Lim** (Office worker, 24)

"I haven't thought deeply. I think I'll vote for the party that matches my ideology, but I don't know yet." Kim** (Graduate student, 27)

"Policies don't seem likely to be implemented, and I don't know what criteria to use for evaluation." Park** (Freelancer, 28)

"Since it's become a negative election anyway, I'll see how *** candidate's *** issue turns out before voting." Han** (Office worker, 27)

"I live alone, so I don't watch the news much and don't know well. I think I'll vote based on jobs or real estate policies." Yang** (Office worker, 27)

"None of the first or second candidates, and I don't know the feasibility of the others' pledges. I might abstain." Seon** (Office worker, 29)

"I'm not interested... I'll decide after looking at the pledges." Shin** (Job seeker, 25)

"The criterion is realistically achievable pledges." Lim** (University student, 25)

"Maybe pledges and reputation?" Park** (Unemployed, 27)

"I don't want to vote for ** party, but I don't like ** party either." Han** (University student, 27)

"I dislike both. Seeing them tear each other down in debates made me feel even more hopeless." Shin** (Job seeker, 26)

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.