Tough 50s, Swinging the Election Scene

A Generation Sensitive to Livelihood and Economic Issues
Prioritizing Practical Help Over Ideology

On the 5th, about a month before the Seoul mayoral by-election, a pillar in the Seoul City Hall Station concourse is wrapped with a phrase encouraging voter participation. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporters Kum Boryeong, Koo Chae-eun] Voters in their 50s are being identified as the 'key' that could determine the outcome of the April 7 by-elections. People in their 50s, who are inevitably sensitive to livelihood and economic issues, are likely to cast their votes not only based on political ideology but also for candidates who can help with their 'real-life' concerns.

In last year's general election, voters in their 50s played a significant role as a 'barometer of public sentiment.' Among voters in their 50s, 49.1% voted for the Democratic Party of Korea and 41.9% for the United Future Party. The party vote shares in constituency votes after the general election count were similarly close, with the Democratic Party at 49.9% and the United Future Party at 41.5%.

This election is intertwined with issues such as COVID-19 and the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) real estate scandal, which are of particular interest to voters in their 50s. As the economy contracted due to COVID-19, jobs have decreased for both salaried workers and self-employed individuals in their 50s, as well as for their children in their 20s and 30s. According to the Korea Economic Research Institute, the economically active population last year was 28.012 million, a decrease of 174,000 compared to the previous year.

With the average apartment price in Seoul surpassing 900 million won, making home ownership a distant dream, people in their 50s are worried not only about their own homes but also about their children's housing. Additionally, the real estate speculation issue involving LH employees has caused disillusionment among many and is being analyzed as a negative factor for the current administration. Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, explained, "People in their 50s tend to be swing voters, and with real estate becoming an issue, some may leave the ruling party and move to the opposition."

Another reason attention is focused on the choices of voters in their 50s is that their numbers are larger compared to other age groups. As of December last year, the population in their 50s was 8.53 million, the largest among all age groups. In Seoul, there are about 1.49 million people in their 50s, the second largest after those in their 40s (1.5 million), but in Busan, they are the largest group at 560,000. Jang Sung-chul, director of the Sympathy and Debate Policy Center, predicted, "Even the 50s, who were originally supporters of the Moon Jae-in administration, are expected to be shaken significantly due to the real estate issue."

On the 2nd, officials from the Seoul Metropolitan Election Commission are wrapping promotional materials on the screen doors at Chungmuro Station in Seoul to announce the Seoul mayoral by-election date and encourage voter participation. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

Voter turnout is also a major factor that could significantly influence the election outcome. If turnout is low due to COVID-19, the election may be dominated by the core supporters of each party with strong organizational power. Conversely, if turnout is high, livelihood issues such as real estate, COVID-19 prevention, and vaccination are likely to become key topics. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "If turnout is high, the ideological spectrum widens and livelihood issues emerge as election agendas. Since this is a by-election and turnout has decreased due to COVID-19, the election will likely be dominated by core supporters." Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University also said, "If turnout is low, it is highly likely that organized political forces will win."

Whether the opposition's unification, which has begun to enjoy a convention effect, will attract centrist votes is another variable. Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University pointed out, "If the process becomes a stalemate with power struggles or tantrums, the opposition will find it difficult to gain momentum." He added, "As seen with the selection of candidate Oh Se-hoon by the People Power Party, centrist votes will ultimately be the casting vote. If the president's approval rating in March is high, it is possible that the centrist voters will give more support to the ruling party once again."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.