Spring Moving Season Approaches, But Decrease in Move-in Supply... Jeonse Crisis May Worsen Again

50,000 Apartment Move-ins in Feb-Mar... 15% Decrease YoY
Jeonse Listings Increase Causes 'Record High' Pause... Concerns of Worsening Again

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyemin] As the demand for moving during the spring moving season is expected to increase from February to March, right after the Lunar New Year holiday, the supply of apartment move-ins has decreased by nearly 15% compared to the previous year.

Although the market is considered to be stabilizing due to an increase in jeonse (long-term lease) listings during the winter off-season, the possibility of deterioration due to supply-demand imbalance still remains.

According to Real Estate 114 on the 11th, the scheduled apartment move-in volume for February to March this year is 78 complexes, totaling 52,894 households. Compared to the same period last year (61,944 households), this is a 14.6% decrease. Compared to the average of the past four years since 2017, which was 70,113 households, it is a 24.6% reduction.

Senior researcher Yeo Kyung-hee said, "It takes 2 to 3 years from pre-sale to move-in, and the sharp decline in pre-sale volumes in the Gyeongsang region, including Ulsan, due to the economic downturn and population outflow in 2018-2019, has affected this year's move-in volume."

The scheduled move-in volume in the metropolitan area was the largest at 33,522 households. Among these, the Gyeonggi region accounted for most with 23,404 households. In particular, in Gyeonggi-do, 8 out of 13 large complexes with more than 1,000 households are concentrated. Suwon-si Paldal-gu Suwon Station Prugio Xi (4,086 households) and Hwaseong-si Beomjeom Station I-Park Castle (2,666 households) are among those moving in.

Seoul has 8,342 households scheduled. Large apartment complexes such as Mapo-gu Yeomni-dong Mapo Prestige Xi (1,694 households) and Gangdong-gu Sangil-dong Godeok Xi (1,824 households) are also scheduled to move in.

On the other hand, the move-in volume outside the metropolitan area was 19,372 households, the lowest since 2013. In particular, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Jeju-do have no scheduled move-ins in February to March. Among these, the Daejeon area has recently seen the highest increase in jeonse prices nationwide, raising concerns about further instability in the jeonse market.

Move-in volume refers to newly supplied units, and the more there are, the more it can ease jeonse demand. This is because as move-ins increase, jeonse listings can also increase. It especially has a significant impact on short-term supply-demand issues. The government's 2·4 supply plan may influence buying sentiment but is not an immediate supply, so it has limitations in solving the current jeonse problem.

This week, the jeonse price increase rate slowed to 0.22% compared to 0.24% the previous week, but the upward trend continued.

Senior researcher Yeo said, "Jeonse listings may be released mainly in areas with many large complexes, which could locally stabilize jeonse prices," but added, "Once the spring moving demand fully kicks in, the rate of jeonse price increases may expand, especially in areas with excellent school districts and transportation conditions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.