[Politics, That Day...] A Preview of the Seoul Mayoral Two-Way Race... Go Geon - Choi Byung-ryeol 'Reply 1998'

Nearly 10 Candidates Compete in Seoul Mayoral Election, Major Parties Battle for Pride
1998 2nd Local Election, Seoul Mayoral Race a De Facto Duel Between Saejeongchi Minjuyeonhap and Hannara Party

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The election to choose the head of the capital city Seoul, known as the ‘heart of politics,’ is a guaranteed hit. Unless there are special circumstances, any party with seats in the National Assembly participates in the Seoul mayoral election. In the most recent Seoul mayoral election, the 7th simultaneous local elections in 2018, nine candidates ran against each other.

Among them, three major party candidates (Park Won-soon, Kim Moon-soo, Ahn Cheol-soo) stood out, while the other candidates recorded a low vote share of less than 2%. When there are many candidates, the length of election posters posted throughout Seoul also increases. The number of banners hung by candidates on the streets also rises.

What kind of scene would be created if only two candidates competed for Seoul mayor? The length of election posters would be significantly shorter, and the attention on the candidates would increase. Will such a scene unfold in the Seoul mayoral by-election on April 7?

Both the pro-government and opposition camps are preparing for unification, and the Justice Party has decided not to field a candidate. The possibility of a one-on-one race between the Democratic Party candidate and the opposition candidate cannot be ruled out. However, due to variables such as minor parties and independent candidates, it is more likely that more than two candidates will run for Seoul mayor.

Historical Seoul mayoral elections have been like that. There has never been a competition with only two candidates. It has been more common for nearly ten candidates to run. There have been cases where the Seoul mayoral election was effectively a two-person race.

The 1998 2nd simultaneous local elections, known as the textbook example of a two-person race for Seoul mayor, is one such case. At that time, there were three candidates, not two. However, only two parties fielded candidates for Seoul mayor, and the remaining candidate was independent. Independent candidate Lee Byung-ho received only 2.54% of the vote and did not become a major variable in the election.

On the 13th, when the 7th nationwide local elections and the by-elections for the National Assembly were held, clerks were counting votes at the Yeongdeungpo-gu Election Commission counting center set up at the Yeongdeungpo Multipurpose Badminton Gymnasium in Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

In the 1998 Seoul mayoral election, the two parties facing off were the New Political Democratic Union and the Grand National Party. For reference, the 1998 local elections were a three-party system consisting of the New Political Democratic Union, the Grand National Party, and the United Liberal Democrats. The election results produced six winners from the New Political Democratic Union, six from the Grand National Party, and four from the United Liberal Democrats for metropolitan government heads.

Seoul was a showdown between the New Political Democratic Union and the Grand National Party. The New Political Democratic Union fielded candidate Ko Gun, and the Grand National Party fielded candidate Choi Byung-ryeol. Ko Gun was regarded as a ‘master of administration.’ At one point, he was noted for his political power strong enough to lead a presidential race.

Choi Byung-ryeol was a former appointed mayor of Seoul and later became the leader of the Grand National Party, a flagship conservative politician. In terms of political weight alone, he was sufficiently competitive.

In the final count, Ko Gun won with 1,838,348 votes (53.46%). Choi Byung-ryeol performed well with 1,512,854 votes (43.99%) but could not overcome Ko Gun’s lead. Choi also recorded vote shares in the 50% range in Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu.

Ko Gun secured victory with evenly distributed votes across all areas of Seoul. Even in Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu, he recorded vote shares in the low to mid-40% range, making it difficult to find any region where he was particularly weak. In some areas such as Gangbuk-gu, Yangcheon-gu, Guro-gu, and Gwanak-gu, he overwhelmed his competitors with vote shares around 60%.

This might be the winning formula for the upcoming April Seoul mayoral election. Especially if it becomes a two-person race, a candidate must secure evenly distributed votes across all 25 districts of Seoul to get closer to victory. It sounds easy but is a difficult task to accomplish. It literally requires winning the hearts of Seoul citizens. Relying only on one’s support base makes this goal hard to achieve. In the April Seoul mayoral by-election, it will be worth watching which candidate manages to secure evenly distributed votes.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.