Meteorological Agency Chief: "Regrettable to Miss the Time Range of Heavy Snow Forecast" (Comprehensive)

2021 Korea Meteorological Administration Work Plan Announcement
Short-term Forecast Expanded to 1 Hour and Up to 5 Days
Earthquake Early Warning Reduced to Minimum 5 Seconds
West Sea 2nd Offshore Base Established for Focused Typhoon and Heavy Snow Observation

Director Park Kwang-seok of the Korea Meteorological Administration attended the Environment and Labor Committee plenary session held at the National Assembly on the 3rd and delivered a government official's remarks on the passage of the bill. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Jinju] Park Kwangseok, the head of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), recently addressed concerns about the accuracy of heavy snowfall forecasts, stating, "I regret that the predictions deviated from the expected range at certain times, causing inconvenience to some citizens."

During the 2021 KMA work plan briefing held online on the afternoon of the 4th, Director Park said, "When heavy snow or concentrated summer downpours are expected, we will intensively observe and analyze various data multidimensionally to do our best to ensure that commuting and daily life are not disrupted."

The KMA plans to improve forecasts by providing more detailed information from the tropical depression stage before typhoons, including the radius and intensity of strong winds, allowing more preparation time. When a typhoon is expected to affect the country, the KMA will also provide timing and response guidelines for risk factors such as heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves.

Director Park stated, "Until now, we have mainly focused on the typhoon's path, but we will provide related information more quickly during the pre-typhoon stage. We will also offer information on the start time by region, the peak risk times for strong winds and high waves by risk factor, as well as expected impacts and response guidelines."

The frequency of short-term forecasts will become more detailed, and the forecast period will be extended. Forecasts will be provided in 1-hour intervals for up to 5 days, instead of the previous 3 days and 3-hour intervals. Although accuracy may decrease with a longer forecast period, it is deemed necessary to provide the public with predictable information.

Director Park explained, "During stable seasons like spring and autumn, relatively accurate long-term forecasts are possible, but in winter or during concentrated summer downpours, predictions are relatively difficult and uncertainty increases. Survey results showed that people want regularly updated forecasts reflecting recent conditions, and based on this demand, we judged that providing detailed long-term information by spatiotemporal units would be useful."

A KMA official added, "To extend the forecast period to 5 days, we have developed various error correction post-processing techniques and operate a multi-model ensemble system to provide improved guidance to forecasters. We will also improve observations over the West Sea to enhance the accuracy of ultra-short-term forecasts."

Main Contents of the Korea Meteorological Administration's 2021 Work Plan

The KMA will establish a 'Second Marine Meteorological Base' on Deokjeokdo Island in the West Sea by the end of this year. Equipped with automatic upper-air meteorological observation equipment and vertical wind observation devices, the base will focus on monitoring and responding to rapidly changing heavy snow and concentrated downpours in the West Sea.

Director Park said, "Marine observations are conducted using meteorological buoys, but their placement is affected by shipping routes. Building a base on Deokjeokdo will improve the accuracy of rain and snow cloud bands entering through the West Sea. With the data collected here, including upper-air meteorological data, we expect to significantly enhance the accuracy of snowfall and rain forecasts."

The KMA will reduce the earthquake early warning notification time for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or higher from the current 7?25 seconds to 5?10 seconds. The observation network will be used more efficiently by distinguishing between concentrated monitoring zones and general monitoring zones. There are concerns that reducing the number of seismic observation stations from 8 to 4 may lower accuracy.

Regarding this, Kim Namwook, Director of the Earthquake and Volcano Bureau, said, "Past experiments on early warnings for large earthquakes showed no significant difference in error. The reduction from 8 to 4 stations aims to shorten the time from observation to notification to reduce casualties and property damage. To minimize analysis errors, we use three analysis models instead of a single one for early warnings, and after about five months of trial operation and improvements, we will proceed to ensure there are no concerns."

Information on overseas earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or lower will also be provided. Currently, only information on earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher is available. This decision is based on the need to provide information as earthquakes occurring in the West Sea can be felt domestically.

Regarding concerns about forecast gaps in the Seoul area due to the KMA's relocation to Daejeon, Director Park responded, "There is no confirmed decision within the government regarding the relocation of the headquarters. Since 20% of the population and significant economic activities are concentrated in the metropolitan area, we will do our best to improve forecast accuracy for the capital region regardless of changes in circumstances."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.