"Holes Everywhere... Experts Warn of 4th Wave in March-April"

"3rd Wave Peak Passed" Assessment
Seol, School Opening, Fatigue... Variants and Other Triggers Everywhere
Concerns Over Pandemic Resurgence in Spring

[Asia Economy Reporters Jihee Kim, Chunhee Lee] As of midnight on the 29th, the number of new COVID-19 cases was 469, maintaining the 400-range for the second consecutive day. Recently, with cluster infections occurring nationwide centered around IM Mission, the daily number of confirmed cases has slightly increased, but compared to last month when the daily cases were in the 1,000s, it is assessed that the peak of the third wave has passed for now. However, considering the recent resurgence, there are several triggers that could ignite a fourth wave, such as variant viruses, hidden infections, and fatigue from the COVID-19 situation and quarantine guidelines that have lasted over a year.

◆ Hidden infections and quarantine fatigue are key issues = Experts are most concerned about the period after March. It is explained that during the Lunar New Year holidays next month, increased contact and movement among family and acquaintances will lead to effects appearing from March after a maximum two-week incubation period. Additionally, schools will reopen in March. The day before, the Ministry of Education allowed elementary school grades 1-2 to attend school daily under social distancing level 2, permitting wider attendance than last year, which has raised further concerns. Especially, looking at recent cluster infection patterns, there are analyses that hidden infections in the community are not insignificant and could increase the spread.

Professor Eunmi Cheon of the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Mokdong Hospital pointed out, "Recently, confirmed cases continue to emerge in the community such as taekwondo gyms and workplaces, and nearly 20% of cases at temporary screening clinics are positive," adding, "When the new semester starts, increased movement and various factors will act in combination."

Professor Jaehun Jung of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine diagnosed, "During the lull periods after the first and second waves, daily confirmed cases were about 10 and 30 respectively," and added, "Since the numbers have increased after the third wave, the fourth wave starting at that level will inevitably record more confirmed cases."

Social fatigue accumulated due to prolonged high-intensity social distancing is also an obstacle. Professor Joongsik Um of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gil Medical Center emphasized, "The risk of a fourth wave is always present, so now there is no alternative but to maintain quarantine well," and added, "Meanwhile, it is necessary to maintain and manage quarantine measures well, considering the difficulties faced by small business owners, self-employed individuals, and the public's quarantine fatigue."

◆ Need to prepare for vaccine gaps and the fourth wave = Another issue is the ‘vaccine gap.’ Vaccinations will begin next month, but for the general public, vaccinations will effectively start in earnest only after May. Considering overseas cases, it is uncertain whether supply will proceed smoothly. Most countries where vaccinations have become visible recently, such as Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong, are struggling with vaccine supply delays. There are even forecasts that full vaccine supply will only be possible in the second quarter. Professor Cheon said, "Securing vaccines is the most important thing in the current situation, but in Korea, there are no vaccines in hand," and added, "It should be noted that countries that have already started vaccinations, except Israel, are halting vaccinations due to supply issues."

The government is also working hard to prepare measures for the ‘vaccine bottleneck’ in March and April. A senior government official said, "Looking at overseas cases, even though vaccinations have started, they are not proceeding as initially expected," and added, "There are many factors to consider such as vaccine manufacturers’ production status, so we will respond in various ways."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.