[Takryucheongron] The Four-Sided Theory Is a Political Mistake

At the beginning of the year, Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon’s mention of pardoning former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye clearly involved a ‘political mistake.’ This occurred despite the political and legal conditions for pardoning former presidents not being met, and was caused by two major political errors.

Leader Lee cited national unity as the primary justification for the pardon. While the pardon card might appeal to opposition groups dissatisfied with the Moon Jae-in administration, many citizens would likely be bewildered by the call for national unity through pardoning the two former presidents.

Among the deeply divided public, the move could reignite conflicts rather than foster unity. Instead of proposing a pardon, a more realistic national unity card for the ruling party’s leader would be to cooperate with the opposition and recommend a unified government that can implement policies for moderate and conservative citizens to the president.

Beyond the justification of national unity, Lee Nak-yeon’s pardon proposal is underpinned by concerns about the Moon Jae-in administration’s lame-duck syndrome and a political misjudgment. Excessive worry about the lame-duck phase of the Moon administration has led to the idea of recommending pardons for the two former presidents.

In reality, the lame-duck phase of a Korean president near the end of their term requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: a sharp drop in approval ratings and the emergence of future power. Although President Moon’s approval ratings have clearly declined, if the government maintains a balance between policy flexibility and firm reform efforts, the ratings could rebound at any time.

Even if President Moon’s approval ratings fail to recover, it does not immediately mean the onset of a power lame-duck. In the five-year single-term presidential system, the necessary condition for lame-duck is the emergence of future power. Particularly, future power centered on the opposition is stronger, but the current lack of formation of opposition-led future power means the lame-duck phenomenon has not yet been reached. For these reasons, it is not the time for the ruling party leader to propose pardons for former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye.

Lee Nak-yeon’s pardon proposal, stemming from a ‘political mistake’ regarding national unity and lame-duck concerns, was inappropriate. Even from the perspective of caution regarding special pardons, it is unjustifiable. Considering the constitutional principle of separation of powers, the pardon power must not infringe on the essential nature of judicial authority. Although not procedurally required, it is necessary to listen to and consider the Supreme Court’s opinion regarding the president’s special pardon. The president’s special pardon power involves human and political elements and is an authority that cannot be subject to any prior control, thus requiring constitutional and political restraint. Even if a pardon is granted, it must be exercised in the interest of the nation and national harmony, and must not be abused politically or exercised for partisan purposes.

The temptation and obsession with demanding pardons for the two former presidents require political self-restraint from the opposition parties such as the People Power Party. Since the People Power Party is pursuing changes in party structure, ideological spectrum flexibility and neutrality, and even recruiting figures from the moderate camp, the opposition should also be cautious about demanding pardons for political principles and interests. Whether ruling or opposition, proposals or demands for pardons for former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye are not political cards to be handled lightly.

For the ruling party, it would not help national unity, and for the opposition, it would not aid party structural reform at all. Discussions about pardoning former presidents should be political tasks derived from future public discourse on national unity rather than political engineering or partisan interests.

Leader Lee Nak-yeon’s early-year remarks proposing pardons were certainly a major political mistake, if not a political blunder. As a presidential candidate, the remaining time in his role as ruling party leader should be used very strategically to strengthen his own politics and the Democratic Party’s political power. Since the lame-duck of Korean presidents ultimately stems from failures in government formation and personnel desired by the people, Lee Nak-yeon, aiming for the next presidency, should speak frankly and prepare the ‘People-Participatory Unified Government Theory’ as his primary pledge.

The Candlelight Revolution was not merely a victory for progressives but a nationwide, citizen-led political decision. At that time, the unified government theory was a very timely and excellent campaign promise of President Moon Jae-in, but it remains an unfinished task, making it a sufficient catchphrase for Lee Nak-yeon’s efforts to recreate the administration.

Park Sang-chul, Professor at Graduate School of Political Studies, Kyonggi University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.