Domestic Cumulative Cases Exceed 70,000... Still at Level 2.5, Is Downgrade Possible?

Recent One-Week Decline in New COVID-19 Cases
Government to Adjust Social Distancing Guidelines on the 16th

Citizens are lining up to get tested at a temporary screening clinic set up in front of Seoul Station. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] On the 13th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in South Korea surpassed 70,000. It has been 359 days since the first case was reported domestically on January 20 last year. The government plans to readjust and announce the current social distancing measures of Level 2.5 in the metropolitan area and Level 2 in non-metropolitan areas around the 16th, ahead of the expiration on the 17th. They are also considering lowering the levels after reviewing this week's trend in case occurrences and the response capacity of the quarantine system. Although the third wave, which had about 1,000 daily confirmed cases, has recently somewhat subsided, nationwide cluster infections continue, and especially the situation in the metropolitan area remains a concern.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of 0:00 on the day, 562 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported domestically. The cumulative number of confirmed cases reached 70,212, increasing by 10,000 in 13 days since surpassing 60,000 on the 31st of last month.

The number of new confirmed cases over the past week was 869 → 674 → 641 → 664 → 451 → 537 → 562 from the 7th, averaging 628.3 cases per day. During the same period, the number of domestically transmitted confirmed cases, a key indicator for adjusting social distancing levels, was 832 → 633 → 596 → 631 → 419 → 508 → 536, averaging 593.6 cases per day.

Although the number fell below 600, according to the distancing criteria set by the government and quarantine authorities, a nationwide daily average of 400 to 500 or more cases over a week corresponds to Level 2.5. Considering the trend that the number of confirmed cases tends to increase toward the latter part of the week due to fewer diagnostic tests on holidays than weekdays, the number of new confirmed cases and the daily average are likely to rise further by this weekend.

The daily average number of confirmed cases in the metropolitan area over the past week also cannot be lowered to Level 2. From the 7th, the number of confirmed cases in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon was 623 → 452 → 421 → 400 → 297 → 346 → 357, averaging 413.7 cases. To lower the distancing to Level 2, the weekly daily average must drop to the 200s.

Recent 1-Week Daily Average Confirmed Cases Within Level 2.5 Range
Concerns Persist Over Cluster Infection Spread at BTJ Yeolbang Center, etc.

Cluster infections centered around religious facilities and nursing hospitals continue, maintaining the risk of large-scale confirmed cases. At the BTJ Yeolbang Center, a religious facility in Sangju, Gyeongbuk, 576 related confirmed cases were reported as of the previous day. From November 27 last year, a total of 2,797 people were confirmed to have visited the center over a month, of whom 924 were tested and 126 confirmed positive. Among the confirmed cases, 53 people caused an additional 450 transmissions through 27 religious facilities and gatherings in 9 cities and provinces.

Among visitors, 1,873 people (67%) have not been contacted or have concealed their visit and have not undergone testing, raising significant concerns for the quarantine authorities. The positivity rate, representing the ratio of confirmed cases to those tested among visitors, is a staggering 13.6% (126 confirmed out of 924 tested). Applying this rate to the untested group suggests at least 255 additional confirmed cases could emerge. The quarantine authorities stated, "The uncooperative attitude of the BTJ Yeolbang Center could cause considerable damage to society as a whole," and urged, "For everyone's safety, those who visited the center should get tested."

The National Health Insurance Service has decided to claim compensation from the BTJ Yeolbang Center for about 2.6 billion KRW, which the service paid for the expected total medical expenses of confirmed patients, based on violations of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Act, including administrative order violations, refusal of epidemiological investigations, and interference with quarantine efforts.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.