UK Economist's Analysis Two Days Before US Election: "Trump's Reelection Probability 4%"

[Asia Economy Reporter Park So-yeon] The British weekly news magazine The Economist analyzed the probability of U.S. President Donald Trump's reelection at 4%.

According to The Economist's daily updated U.S. presidential election forecast, as of the 1st, two days before the election, former Vice President Joe Biden's chance of winning is 96%, while President Trump’s is only 4%.

This gap is the largest since The Economist began its survey.

Democratic candidate former Vice President Biden is predicted to secure 350 out of the total 538 electoral votes, while Republican candidate President Trump is expected to get 188.

The Economist has developed its own model this year to predict the election results, aiming to overcome the limitations of opinion polls.

This analysis reflects not only opinion polls but also factors such as approval ratings of the incumbent president and the U.S. economic situation.

The Economist emphasizes that it assigned different weights according to sample sizes in the polls and adjusted for biases appearing in survey methods.

All six key battleground states that could decisively influence the election outcome are expected to be controlled by former Vice President Biden.

In the northern declining industrial region known as the "Rust Belt," Biden's winning probabilities are 97% in Wisconsin, 98% in Michigan, and 93% in Pennsylvania.

The southern key battleground region called the "Sun Belt" showed similar trends, though Biden's advantage was relatively less than in the Rust Belt.

Biden's winning probabilities were calculated as 73% in Florida, 70% in North Carolina, and 74% in Arizona.

President Trump won all six of these states against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the probability that former Vice President Biden will defeat President Trump in the popular vote, rather than the electoral vote, was calculated to be over 99%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.