Suga Busy Handling COVID... Possibility of Improving Japan-Korea Relations ↓

"Export restrictions and forced labor compensation rulings have made resolving current issues difficult since the early days of the administration"
"Improving Korea-Japan relations will not be easy for a while... Possibility if Suga is re-elected in September next year"

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga holding his first press conference since taking office at the official residence at 9 p.m. on the 16th. (Image source=Yonhap News)

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), a government-funded research institute, has analyzed that Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide's likelihood of actively improving Japan-South Korea relations is limited.

On the 18th, KIEP stated this in its report titled "The Launch of Japan's Suga Cabinet and Future Prospects."

◆"One-year term... Busy handling COVID-19"

Citizens crossing a pedestrian crossing in Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo, Japan. (Image source=Yonhap News)

Kim Seunghyun, a senior researcher at KIEP, explained, "Prime Minister Suga's term lasts until September next year, which is very short to push forward his top priorities such as responding to the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), Japan's economic recovery, administrative reform, and the establishment of the Digital Agency."

Researcher Kim noted that it is necessary to consider Suga's tough stance during his time as Chief Cabinet Secretary and his expected focus on pressing issues such as COVID-19 and economic recovery.

During his tenure as Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga repeatedly criticized South Korea's Supreme Court rulings on forced labor compensation and public notice delivery decisions as violations of international law.

He assessed, "It is unlikely that Prime Minister Suga will actively strive to resolve issues with South Korea, such as export controls and forced labor compensation rulings, from the early days of his administration. It will be difficult for Japan-South Korea relations to improve significantly for some time."

◆Possibility of Japan-South Korea relations improving only after Suga's re-election

Nikai Toshihiro, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. (Photo by Yonhap News)

In the long term, assuming ▲ Prime Minister Suga is re-elected after September next year and ▲ his close relationship with LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro, who holds strong influence within the party, Suga might take steps to improve Japan-South Korea relations.

Secretary-General Nikai actively supported Suga as the "post-Abe" candidate even before Suga announced his candidacy and played a significant role in Suga's election by leading a simplified voting method focused on Diet members.

Researcher Kim said, "Secretary-General Nikai is considered relatively pro-Korea within the LDP. In a meeting with Kang Chang-il, chairman of the Korea-Japan Parliamentarians' Union, last January, he mentioned the necessity of improving Japan-South Korea relations."

◆Japan to maintain Abenomics, fiscal, and trade policies... Difficult to revive finance and fiscal discipline

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. (Photo by Yonhap News)

Researcher Kim expects the Suga Cabinet to temporarily inherit the economic policies of the Abe Cabinet, including Abenomics, fiscal consolidation, and trade policies. However, it is anticipated that achieving clear results in financial easing and fiscal consolidation will be challenging.

Since Prime Minister Suga's willingness for structural reform is weaker than former Prime Minister Abe's, the possibility of actively addressing the limitations of financial easing policies is not very high.

Considering his emphasis on expanding social security during his candidacy, the necessity of supplementary measures related to COVID-19, and the inevitable additional expenditures for Japan's stagnant economic recovery, it is also expected that fiscal consolidation will not make significant progress under the Suga administration.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.