JP Morgan "President Biden anyway? ... Must Prepare for Trump Victory"

Changes in Supporters When US Protests Turn Violent
Trump Supporters Deliberately Distort Polls

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Although opinion polls show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden significantly ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump, experts warn that the actual presidential election results may differ, and investors should prepare accordingly.

On the 1st (local time), Marco Kolbanovic, a strategist at U.S. investment bank JP Morgan, analyzed that contrary to opinion poll results, the chances of Trump and Biden winning are almost equal. He pointed out that the violent nature of protests following the killing of a Black man by police officers and the deliberate misinformation by Trump supporters to distort polls mean that the poll results cannot be taken at face value.

President Donald Trump of the United States
[Photo by Yonhap News]

Strategist Kolbanovic suggested that if protests across various regions in the U.S. turn violent, about 5-10% of voters might switch their support from Biden to Trump. He also emphasized the need to consider the possibility that Trump supporters may have lied to distort poll results.

He stated, "Anything can happen in the next 60 days," adding, "While momentum seems to favor President Trump, most investors still largely see Biden as the likely winner." Investors should keep in mind the possibility of Trump's re-election when making investment decisions.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden [Photo by Yonhap News]

Bloomberg News also pointed out that although Biden leads in opinion polls, the margin is not large, reminiscent of the last presidential election. In the previous election, the Democratic Party won the popular vote but lost the presidency due to the U.S. Electoral College system.

In the U.S. stock market, sectors such as alternative energy and infrastructure stocks have gained attention due to the possibility of Biden's victory. Conversely, defense-related stocks and private prison stocks have shown sluggish performance.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.