'If the US President Contracts COVID-19'... Emerging Trump Infection Scenario

Even Asymptomatic, Isolation with Close Contacts Delays Key Decisions
1955 Eisenhower Heart Attack Sends US Stocks Down 6.54% in One Day
Republican Presidential Candidate May Need to Be Replaced
US COVID-19 New Cases Hit Record High of 65,000 per Day

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] In the United States, a hypothetical scenario that could be expected after President Donald Trump was exposed to the infectious disease is being seriously discussed. Following UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and recently Jair Bolsonaro, the Brazilian president who calls himself the 'Trump of South America,' being infected with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), concerns reflecting the possibility of this becoming a reality someday have emerged within the American intellectual community. On the 9th (local time), the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. increased by 65,000, setting a new record high once again.

According to the Brookings Institution, a U.S. think tank, senior researcher John Hudak recently released a report titled "What Happens When President Trump Gets COVID-19," stating, "Even if President Trump were to be infected with COVID-19 and remain asymptomatic, significant chaos is expected," and warned, "The mere fact that the U.S. president is infected with COVID-19 could cause global stock markets to plummet."

With major diplomatic issues such as U.S.-China conflicts, the Hong Kong situation, and nuclear arms reduction agreements with Russia requiring presidential leadership, receiving COVID-19 treatment could hinder diplomatic activities like summits and cause market instability.

In particular, COVID-19’s high transmissibility makes it difficult for even the president’s close aides to meet him directly due to quarantine measures, even if symptoms are mild. This means the president’s normal official duties and decision-making on various matters could become difficult. Hudak explained, "Even security personnel who must stay by the president’s side 24 hours a day will find it difficult to be in close contact with him, severely limiting their activities. Even if instructions are given via video briefings, face-to-face meetings with cabinet members will be difficult, making communication challenging."

These concerns are confirmed by past cases. According to the U.S. economic media Forbes, when President Eisenhower was hospitalized due to a heart attack in 1955, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 6.54% that day alone, and global stock markets also declined. This was recorded as the largest drop since the 1929 Great Depression.

If President Trump becomes a severe case rather than mild, the situation becomes much more complicated. U.S. ABC News pointed out that since Trump is both the incumbent president and a presidential candidate, the confusion could be greater. According to ABC News, if President Trump’s condition worsens to the point where he cannot communicate due to procedures like intubation, or in the worst case, dies, Vice President Mike Pence would assume presidential powers under the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. However, if President Trump is unable to continue the election scheduled for November, the Republican Party would face the difficult situation of having to select a new candidate just before the election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.