Chinese Experts: "High Possibility of North Korean Military Action... Provocation Target is the United States"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] Regarding North Korea's demolition of the inter-Korean joint liaison office, a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, Chinese experts are highly anticipating the possibility of North Korea resuming military exercises, and they believe the ultimate target of this provocation is the United States.

On the 17th, Chinese internet media Pengpai reported, citing North Korea experts' opinions, that "North Korea has sent a clear signal," and "North Korean experts do not rule out the possibility that North Korea will conduct military training in the next phase. This opens up the possibility that tensions between North Korea and South Korea could escalate in a spiral in the short term."

Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific and International Strategy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Pengpai, "This shows that North Korea is continuously applying pressure on South Korea," and added, "How the situation will develop in the future ultimately depends on how South Korea responds to North Korea."

Li Jiacheng, associate professor at the School of International Relations at Liaoning University, also said in an interview with Pengpai, "The likelihood of military clashes between the two Koreas is increasing," and diagnosed, "To continue pressuring the South, North Korea will likely conduct land, sea, and air force exercises near the 38th parallel in the next phase to strengthen its military presence."

Experts assessed that although North Korea's recent provocation appears to be aimed at South Korea on the surface, the ultimate goal is directed at the United States. It is explained as North Korea pressuring the U.S. to lift economic sanctions against it.

Associate Professor Li analyzed, "North Korea is dissatisfied with the stagnant situation on the Korean Peninsula without any progress," and "It may have taken radical measures to overcome the deadlock." Yang Xiyu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, also said, "Saying that North Korea has entered a wartime posture is not a declaration of war against South Korea but essentially a political act."

Concerns were also raised that the deadlock between North Korea and the U.S. will continue for the time being, and no positive changes will occur in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Jan Debin, a professor at the Korea Peninsula Research Center at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, said, "There is no hope for dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea before the U.S. presidential election in November this year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.