Former Statistics Korea Chief Yuk Kyung-jun: "Professor Mibein Miscalculated Due to Lack of Understanding of Korean Electoral System"

Conservative Faction Refutes 'Election Fraud' Controversy... "98% Probability No Election Fraud"
Assemblyman Min Kyung-wook, Who Claims 'Election Fraud,' Reported to Guri City Election Commission

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Yoo Kyung-jun, a future United Party winner and former head of the Statistics Korea, pointed out that the statistics presented by Professor Mibein, who raised the possibility of election fraud, may have been miscalculated due to a misunderstanding of Korea's system.

On the 21st, Yoo stated on his Facebook, "While the public's suspicions of election fraud should not be dismissed as 'conspiracy theories,' on the other hand, those raising suspicions should not engage in blind criticism or make claims that differ from the facts, as this does not help proper verification."

Earlier, Professor Mibein raised the possibility of fraud, citing that many votes deviated from the statistical average in the analysis of early voting in Korea's general election. However, Yoo referred to the 'eForensic' statistical model used by Professor Mibein for fraud analysis and stated that "the possibility of election fraud is low."

The eForensic statistical model classifies election results (voter turnout/vote share) into four types: ▲unit_a (Si/Gun/Gu voting on election day) ▲unit_b (Eup/Myeon/Dong voting on election day) ▲unit_c (overseas absentee voting) ▲unit_d (early voting). It estimates the 'fraudulently obtained votes' by collecting results that significantly differ from consistent trends across these four types.

Professor Mibein claimed that many fraudulent voting tendencies were found in the fourth type, early voting, and that 9.8% (1,418,079 votes) of the 14,343,693 votes obtained by the Democratic Party in the 21st general election were fraudulently obtained.

In response, Yoo said, "The eForensic method is statistically valid but requires several assumptions," pointing out that "the four units used for comparison should be independent and administratively distinct, but unit_a (Si/Gun/Gu voting on election day) and unit_b (Eup/Myeon/Dong voting on election day) are effectively overlapping."

Yoo also stated, "the voter turnout for unit_d (early voting) was miscalculated. In the U.S., a separate early voting group is designated, and the turnout is calculated based on how many of them voted, but in Korea, there is no designated early voting group, and anyone willing can vote early, so a separate turnout rate for early voting cannot be calculated in the first place."

This explains that Professor Mibein misunderstood Korea's election system, where a separate turnout rate for early voting cannot be derived, leading to incorrect calculations. Yoo said, "After correcting some errors in the statistical model presented by Professor Mibein and deriving new results, the probability of 'no election fraud' was 98.4%, indicating that the possibility of election fraud in the 21st general election is almost nonexistent."

He added, "Among the 3,485 Eup/Myeon/Dong units, only 13 were predicted as fraudulent, accounting for just 0.37% of the total," and "the fraudulent votes obtained by Democratic Party candidates were only 1.4%, much lower than the 9.9% predicted by Professor Mibein."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Yoo said, "When I criticize Professor Mibein's research data, I often hear, 'Why is a United Party winner siding with the Democratic Party?' or 'Since you have already won, does that mean the winners' fighting spirit is weak?'" He explained, "This is not about giving a clean bill of health to the entire election commission system, but for conservative parties to regain public trust and become a ruling party again, they must be able to offer reasonable criticism and alternatives."

He added, "I hope that the criticism I raised will serve as a starting point for productive verification of election fraud suspicions," emphasizing, "The election commission and the ruling party government must fully disclose and explain all data related to the suspicions of election fraud raised by the public and some opposition parties without any concealment."

Meanwhile, on the same day, United Party lawmaker Min Kyung-wook announced at a National Assembly press conference that he would file a complaint against the Guri City election commission staff for mismanaging ballots, saying, "Remaining ballots should not be at the counting center." On the 19th, Min claimed election manipulation, stating, "There is a communication device and a spectrum sensor capable of reading QR codes in the ballot sorting machine."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.