[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Stalemate in Inter-Korean Negotiations, Missile Development Race

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] It has been confirmed that the military conducted the first test launch of the 'Hyunmoo-4 (tentative name)' with increased range and warhead weight, indicating that the deployment of the new ballistic missile is likely to accelerate. In particular, amid the deadlock in inter-Korean and North Korea-US talks, the ballistic missile competition between the two Koreas is expected to gradually intensify.

So far, the missile 'Taurus,' imported from Germany, has been considered a key strategic weapon capable of directly attacking North Korea's nuclear and missile command. However, since only two missiles weighing 1.4 tons each can be mounted on one fighter jet, it has been pointed out as a limitation for smooth operational use. When North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test in September 2017, the South Korean and US leaders pushed for revising missile guidelines that completely removed warhead weight restrictions for South Korea's missiles for this reason.

The current Hyunmoo missile possessed by the military means 'Guardian of the North.' The Hyunmoo missile series includes the Hyunmoo-2A (range 300 km), Hyunmoo-2B (500 km), Hyunmoo-2C (800 km) ballistic missiles, and the Hyunmoo-3 (1000 km) cruise missile. It is reported that the military developed and deployed the Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile, which can perform pull-up maneuvers during the descent phase like the Russian Iskander missile, in the early 2000s. Among the Hyunmoo series, the Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missiles use rocket propulsion, making them faster and more destructive than the jet engine-based Hyunmoo-3 cruise missile. However, cruise missiles have higher precision than ballistic missiles.

After the US and South Korea revised missile guidelines and established the Hyunmoo-4 development plan, the Army also changed its operational concept. The Army established a concept to first completely destroy North Korea's nuclear and missile bases and long-range artillery positions with three types of ballistic missiles?tactical surface-to-surface missiles (KTSSM), Hyunmoo-2, and Hyunmoo-4?at the early stage of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula. This is part of the offensive defense system called the 'Kill Chain' and the '5 Major Game Changers' that execute the massive retaliation operation (KMPR).

North Korea is also not slowing down the development of new ballistic missiles. Since test-firing the Taepodong missile in July 2006, it has been developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It is accelerating the test launches and deployment of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and new short-range ballistic missiles. Recently, new weapons such as a 600mm-class super-large multiple rocket launcher with reduced firing time and new large-caliber guided multiple rocket launchers have appeared.

North Korea is reportedly nearing completion of a new facility supporting ICBM launches near 'Sinri,' close to Pyongyang Sunan International Airport.

On the 5th (local time), the US-based North Korea specialist site 'Beyond Parallel' released a report titled 'Sinri Ballistic Missile Support Facility' on its website. The site stated that among the Sinri facilities near Pyongyang Sunan International Airport, a building with a high ceiling is large enough to accommodate the Hwasong-15 ICBM and all of North Korea's ballistic missiles.

It also explained that this facility, previously unknown publicly, includes a large underground facility next to the building, big enough to easily accommodate all of North Korea's ballistic missiles, related launchers, and support vehicles. Based on its scale, it is likely used for assembling parts transported by rail from nearby ballistic missile parts factories such as the Taesong Machine Factory, as well as for maintenance and storage of all ballistic missiles and mobile launchers (TEL and MEL) and mobile erectors (TE). The report predicted that if construction maintains its current pace, the facility will be ready for operation by the end of this year or early next year.

According to the site, North Korea began constructing this uniquely arranged facility about 17 km southwest of Sunan Airport and northwest of Pyongyang since mid-2016. The facility covers approximately 442,300 square meters, including three vehicle-connected buildings, underground facilities, and a rail terminal. Connected by 9 to 10-meter-wide roads, it is suitable for the movement of large trucks or ballistic missile launch vehicles. Notably, the center of the largest building is assessed to have sufficient height to easily raise Hwasong-14 or Hwasong-15 series ICBMs installed on mobile launchers to the launch position for testing or training.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.