Rumors of Kim Jong-un's Health Issues Spread... Low Likelihood of Sudden Crisis

Non-attendance at Kim Il-sung Memorial Called 'Sacrilegious Incident'
Earlier, Possibility of Accident During Cruise Missile Launch on 14th

On the 12th, Korean Central TV reported that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, inspected the Pursuit Attack Aircraft Regiment under the Western District Air and Anti-Aircraft Corps. Chairman Kim is seen shielding his eyes from the sunlight with his hand while watching a fighter jet take off.

North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un did not pay tribute at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where the bodies of President Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il lie, on the 108th birthday of Kim Il-sung (the Day of the Sun) on the 15th, raising rumors about his health. However, even if there is an issue with Kim's health, evaluations suggest that the likelihood of a sudden crisis such as the collapse of the North Korean regime is very low.

Earlier on the 16th, North Korean state media including the Korean Central News Agency, Korean Central Television, and Korean Central Broadcasting reported that party and government officials and military institution leaders visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun the previous day. However, there was no report that Chairman Kim Jong-un paid tribute at the palace. This is the first time since Kim officially took power in 2012 that he has not paid tribute on his grandfather Kim Il-sung's birthday.

Jung Sung-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, analyzed on the 17th, "Although high-ranking North Korean officials paid tribute, the supreme leader Kim Jong-un himself did not, which is an 'irreverent' incident," adding, "There is a possibility that Kim's health or personal situation has at least temporarily deteriorated."

It is also notable that North Korea did not report at all on the day after launching a cruise missile on the 14th.

Jung said, "It is presumed that an accident occurred on April 14, the day North Korea test-fired the cruise missile, and North Korea did not report the missile launch. Kim Jong-un, who was present at the missile launch site, either could not pay tribute at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun or recently suffered severe illness or sudden health issues due to overexertion from public activities."

Even if there was an accident, it is believed to have been minor. The list of visitors paying tribute at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on the 15th included Ri Pyong-chol, vice chairman of the Party Central Committee, who often accompanies Kim in military-related public activities. Even if an accident occurred during the missile test launch on the 14th, it is inferred that it was not a major incident.

On the occasion of the 108th birthday of North Korean President Kim Il-sung (the Day of the Sun, April 15), high-ranking officials paid tribute on the 15th at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, where President Kim's body is enshrined, the Rodong Sinmun, the Workers' Party's official newspaper, reported on its front page on the 16th. A flower basket labeled "Kim Jong-un" is placed in front of the statues of President Kim Il-sung and National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il.

Even if there is an issue with Kim's personal situation, Jung predicted that the North Korean regime is unlikely to be shaken. He explained, "Kim Jong-un's younger sister Kim Yo-jong, a candidate member of the Workers' Party Central Committee Political Bureau, exerts considerable influence as a 'Baekdu bloodline,' and the North Korean leadership shares an interest in maintaining the regime, so the possibility of a sudden crisis in North Korea is slim."

Jung also urged government authorities to closely monitor North Korean developments. He said, "If there is a health problem with Kim Jong-un, North Korea may hesitate more in improving external and inter-Korean relations and become more closed off, so it is necessary to carefully observe internal North Korean trends."

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Unification is withholding evaluation and monitoring the situation regarding Kim Jong-un's absence from the Day of the Sun tribute at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. Cho Hye-sil, deputy spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification, said at a regular briefing that day in response to related questions, "As far as we know, there has been no report from North Korean media about Kim Jong-un's tribute at the Kumsusan Palace," but added, "It does not seem appropriate to speculate on the intention behind this."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.