Significantly Different COVID-19 'Fatality Rates' by Country... What Are the Reasons?

Simple Comparison Is Difficult When Actual Confirmed Cases Are Unknown
Variables Include Age Groups of Confirmed Cases, Healthcare Systems, and Progress Stages by Country

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The fatality rates of COVID-19 vary significantly by country. For example, Italy's fatality rate reaches 11%, while Germany's is only 0.8%. Considering that among 723,329 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 34,005 have died, resulting in a global average fatality rate of 4.7%, this represents a substantial difference. Why do fatality rates differ so much from country to country?

On the 29th (local time), foreign media citing experts argued that fatality rates announced by each country should not be simply compared. Since each country has different quarantine methods and the actual number of confirmed cases is unknown, drawing conclusions based on government-reported fatality rates is premature.

Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the World Health Organization (WHO), explains that four factors relate to fatality rates: who is infected, the stage of the epidemic in each country, how many tests have been conducted, and the condition of each country's healthcare system.

Above all, to know the true fatality rate of COVID-19, it is necessary to know how many people have contracted the disease. However, if asymptomatic or mild cases do not get tested, the infection itself may go undetected.

Professor Rosalind Smith of the Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine at the University of London said, "(For example, the UK government's announcement) can be misleading and should not be used," adding, "The actual number of infected people is likely 5 to 10 times higher."

The age group of confirmed cases is also an important issue. As confirmed so far, fatality rates increase sharply with the age of the infected. Countries with a larger elderly population inevitably have higher fatality rates. In fact, Italy's average age of infected individuals is reported to be 62 years. This factor can cause the death rate to rise. The more elderly members in a society, the higher the fatality rate tends to be.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The low fatality rates of 1.6% in Korea and 0.8% in Germany can be explained by the opposite reason. In Korea, one-third of all confirmed cases are aged 30 or younger, and in Germany, most confirmed cases are under 60 years old.

There is also a point that seasonal factors and causes other than COVID-19 should be considered separately. Even without COVID-19, deaths occur in every country, so it is necessary to consider these factors and see how many more deaths have occurred due to COVID-19.

The healthcare system of each country is also an important variable. Depending on whether the healthcare system is overwhelmed by a surge in COVID-19 patients or not, fatality rates can differ. If the healthcare system can handle patients, critically ill patients can receive intensive care. However, if the healthcare system is overwhelmed, the quality of medical care patients receive inevitably declines, and medical staff are forced to make harsh choices.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.