[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] North Korea Ballistic Missile Launch... Response Dilemma

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] As North Korea continues to launch short-range projectiles in succession, the government has fallen into a response dilemma. Although North Korea's projectile launches violate Security Council resolutions, North Korea claims they are "just internal training," and our government also seems reluctant to take strong countermeasures.

North Korea continued multiple rocket launcher firings on the 9th, following the 2nd. At that time, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, once again supervised the fire strike training of frontline long-range artillery units on the 9th," clarifying that the launches were conducted by artillery units, not the strategic forces operating missiles. This means that 600mm-class super-large multiple rocket launchers have already been deployed in field units.

The South Korean and U.S. military authorities evaluate the 600mm-class super-large multiple rocket launcher as a ballistic missile. Since the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1718 in 2006, missile launches by North Korea using ballistic missile technology have been prohibited, constituting a violation of Security Council resolutions.

However, our government is currently unable to respond. The military authorities state that the September 19 military agreement specifies "the suspension of artillery firing and maritime maneuver training in waters from Sokcho in the South to Tongcheon in the North along the East Sea," so missiles launched north of that, such as near the Hodoban Peninsula close to Wonsan, Gangwon Province, are difficult to challenge.

Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo also engaged in a heated exchange during a parliamentary question session in September last year when Liberty Korea Party lawmaker Shim Jae-cheol asked, "Do you consider North Korea's missile launches as hostile acts?" Minister Jeong retorted, "Then how should we describe our own missile test developments?" This statement emphasized that North Korea's missile launches do not constitute hostile acts against us and therefore do not violate the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement.

The international community is also lukewarm. At the UN Security Council meeting held on the 5th, five European countries' UN ambassadors issued a joint statement condemning North Korea, but the United States did not join. The statement was a European-level response and not an official Security Council position. The North Korea issue was discussed as "other matters" during a meeting on the Syria situation. The five European countries issuing the statement include permanent members the United Kingdom and France, and non-permanent members Germany, Belgium, and Estonia.

In the joint statement announced by German Ambassador Christoph Heusgen on behalf of the five European countries, they said, "Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom deeply regret North Korea's ballistic missile test launches." They added, "North Korea has launched ballistic missiles 14 times since May last year," and "continues its nuclear and ballistic missile programs."

The future is the problem. When North Korea first test-fired the super-large multiple rocket launcher on August 24 last year, the interval between consecutive shots was 17 minutes. However, on the 2nd and 9th of this month, it was reduced to 20 seconds. Photos released by North Korean media confirmed that only two launch tubes were opened. This suggests that while the first and second shots were super-large multiple rocket launcher firings achieving the 20-second interval, the third shot may have been a different type of multiple rocket launcher. Alternatively, if the third shot was also a super-large multiple rocket launcher, it could be considered a failure of a triple consecutive launch. Accordingly, additional test firings seem inevitable, but the government's lukewarm response is expected to continue.

Shin Jong-woo, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), said, "While two consecutive launches were successful, the capability for field operation appears insufficient," and predicted, "Additional launch tests will likely be conducted to verify four consecutive launches and field operation capabilities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.