Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungnam Face Red Alert for 'Regional Extinction Risk'

Graph of the top 10 administrative districts in Daejeon with the highest variation in extinction risk index from 1998 to 2018. Provided by Daejeon Sejong Institute.

[Asia Economy (Daejeon) Reporter Jeong Il-woong] The extinction risk index in the Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungnam regions has increased. The local extinction index is calculated by dividing the population of women of childbearing age by the population aged 65 and over. Assuming simplified conditions, it is calculated on the premise that the risk of demographic decline increases when the population of women in the age group actively giving birth is less than the elderly population aged 65 or older.

Generally, the extinction risk index is classified as ▲1.5 or higher ‘Very Low’ ▲1.0 to less than 1.5 ‘Normal’ ▲0.5 to less than 1.0 ‘Caution’ ▲0.2 to less than 0.5 ‘Entering Extinction Risk Stage’ ▲less than 0.2 ‘High Extinction Risk’.

According to the research report "Regional Imbalance in the Decline of Youth Population in Daejeon and Sejong Regions" published on the 11th by researchers Joo Hye-jin and Choi Sung-eun of the Daejeon-Sejong Research Institute, as of December 2018, among 79 administrative neighborhoods in Daejeon, five neighborhoods including Dong-gu Jungang-dong (0.20), Seo-gu Giseong-dong (0.20), Dong-gu Daecheong-dong (0.21), Dong-gu Panam 2-dong (0.30), and Jung-gu Munchang-dong (0.37) entered the extinction risk entry stage.

In the case of Daejeon, the extinction risk from 2013 to 2018 is relatively low compared to other regions. However, considering the trend of a decreasing proportion of young women, the Daejeon-Sejong Research Institute judges that Daejeon is not free from regional extinction risk in the long term.

In fact, Seo-gu Wolpyeong 1-dong in Daejeon saw its extinction risk index sharply drop from 8.82 in 1998 to 1.61 in 2018. During the same period, Seo-gu Mannyeon-dong dropped from 7.28 to 2.12, Daedeok-gu Jungri-dong from 5.91 to 0.89, Seo-gu Galma 2-dong from 7.08 to 2.45, and Daedeok-gu Moksang-dong from 5.50 to 1.46, confirming that the extinction risk index has decreased, indicating a gradually increasing regional extinction risk.

Graph of total population changes in Sejong City from 2012 to 2018. Provided by Daejeon Sejong Research Institute.

Sejong, on the other hand, is considered the only region nationwide where extinction risk is decreasing due to total population growth. However, when examining the conditions of each eup, myeon, and dong within Sejong, the proportion of extinction risk areas is 69.2%, which is not much different from that of metropolitan provinces such as Gangwon-do (64.4%) and Chungnam-do (70.2%).

This can be interpreted as a kind of polarization phenomenon where the overall regional extinction risk has decreased due to the sharp population increase since Sejong City’s establishment in 2012, but the eup and myeon areas excluding the new town are experiencing increased extinction risk due to population decline and aging.

For example, Sejong is currently divided into 14 dongs (Bangok, Sodam, Boram, Daepyeong, Garam, Hansol, Naseong, Saerom, Dajeong, Eojin, Jongchon, Goun, Areum, Dodam), 9 myeons (Yeongi, Yeondong, Bugang, Geumnam, Janggun, Yeonseo, Jeonui, Jeondong, Sojeong), and 1 eup (Jochiwon-eup) as administrative districts.

Among these, the dong-level areas all showed an extinction risk index of 1.5 or higher from 2012 to 2018, maintaining a ‘low regional extinction risk area.’ The extinction risk indices of these areas were highest in the order of Saerom-dong 5.05, Sodam-dong 4.44, Daepyeong-dong 4.26, and Boram-dong 3.85.

Status map of the regional extinction risk index by eup, myeon, and dong in Sejong City as of 2018. Provided by Daejeon Sejong Institute

On the other hand, all myeon-level areas generally showed a decline in the related index, making them not free from extinction risk. As of 2018, the extinction risk indices for myeon-level areas were low in the order of Jeondong-myeon 0.20, Yeondong-myeon 0.26, and Jeonui-myeon 0.33.

The situation in Chungnam is similar to that of Daejeon and Sejong. According to Chungnam Province, in 2018, 10 out of 15 cities and counties in Chungnam entered the extinction risk entry stage. By region, Seocheon recorded 0.21, Cheongyang 0.22, Buyeo 0.23, Geumsan 0.27, Taean 0.28, and Yesan 0.28, all in the 0.2 range, while Boryeong 0.38, Nonsan 0.39, and Gongju 0.466 were relatively better off. Areas relatively free from extinction risk included Cheonan, Asan, and Gyeryong, with index distributions ranging from 1.20 to 1.67.

The province stated, "The regional extinction risk issue, once considered a problem of rural fishing and farming areas, is recently expanding to local metropolitan areas and public institution relocation hubs," and added, "Chungnam plans to establish a long-term vision for population policy in response to the regional extinction crisis theory and to formulate basic directions and response strategies for regional population policy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.