UN Projects 2.5% Global Economic Growth This Year... South Korea at 2.3%

'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020' Published

Growth Could Fall to 1.8% if Trade and Geopolitical Tensions Persist

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected the global economic growth rate for this year at 2.5%. South Korea is expected to see a slight increase to 2.3% compared to last year.

On the 16th (local time), UNCTAD released the 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020' report, forecasting that East Asian countries and emerging markets will lead the recovery.

In particular, China’s growth rate is expected to slightly decline from 6.1% last year to 6.0% this year and 5.9% next year, but it is still anticipated to drive global growth through expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

South Korea’s growth rate is also projected to rebound slightly from 2.0% last year to 2.3% this year.

UNCTAD noted that the South Korean government plans to increase fiscal spending by 8% this year, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand, especially private consumption. However, export growth is expected to remain sluggish due to trade disputes with Japan.

Emerging economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey are also predicted to gain momentum for economic recovery this year.

However, most advanced economies, including the United States, are expected to show limited economic vitality.

In the case of the United States, despite interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), ongoing policy uncertainties and reduced economic stimulus measures are expected to cause GDP growth to decline from 2.2% last year to 1.7% this year.

Japan, on the other hand, is expected to perform somewhat better than other advanced economies due to the scheduled hosting of the Olympics this year.

Additionally, many countries in Central and South America and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to experience economic stagnation or a decline in per capita income due to debt repayments and interest burdens.

UNCTAD emphasized that this forecast assumes trade and geopolitical tensions are kept under control; otherwise, the global economic growth rate could fall to as low as 1.8%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.