"If US-Iran tensions repeat, oil prices could soar up to $100"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Eunbyeol Kim] There is a forecast that if the extreme tensions between the United States and Iran repeat, international oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel.

German insurance company and global institutional investor Allianz Group made this prediction in its report titled "Iran-US Conflict: Incomplete Detente, Regional Instability," released on the 9th (local time).

The report analyzed, "If the conflict between the United States and Iran causes international oil prices to rise by $10 per barrel, the global gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will decrease by 0.1 percentage points annually, and global inflation will increase by 0.3 percentage points."

The report also revised this year's international oil price forecast upward from $62 per barrel to $65.5 per barrel. It further warned, "If extreme tensions between the United States and Iran occur repeatedly, international oil prices could temporarily surge to around $100 per barrel."

It was found that the longer the conflict between the United States and Iran prolongs and the high oil price situation continues, the greater the damage to the global economy.

If international oil prices rise to $80 per barrel and remain at that level, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) global index is expected to fall by 2% after 12 months and the decline will deepen to 9% after 20 months.

By country, if oil prices rise by $10 per barrel and remain so for one year, the GDP growth rates of South Korea, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France are expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points. The economic growth rates of the United States, Germany, Italy, Spain, Indonesia, and Greece are also expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.