[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] The Next Move Between the US and Iran... The Strait of Hormuz Blockade Is Key

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] On the 8th (local time), Iran attacked a US military base in Iraq, drawing attention to the next moves in the Middle East region. US President Donald Trump stated that the US does not want to use military force but will impose additional economic sanctions on Iran. However, if Iran proceeds with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, military tensions are bound to escalate again.

Inside and around the Strait of Hormuz, a series of adverse events have occurred since early May last year, starting with the US military's deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group and bomber squadrons, followed by attacks on four oil tankers (May 12), two more oil tankers (June 12), the downing of a US military drone (June 20), and the detention of an Iranian oil tanker (July 14). Analysts say the atmosphere has become as hostile as during the mid-1980s Iran-Iraq War, which was called the 'Tanker War' due to attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf waters.

The 'Tanker War,' triggered by Iraq's attack on Iran's oil export port on Kharg Island in 1984, saw Iran and Iraq attacking even third-country commercial vessels transporting oil produced by the opposing side. At that time, Iran responded to Iraq's preemptive attacks by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, but the US threatened direct military intervention, preventing an actual blockade. Until the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, over four years, more than 540 commercial vessels, mainly oil tankers, were attacked in the Gulf, mostly by Iraq.

Fearing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, the US has increased the level of sanctions since Iran withdrew from the 'Iran nuclear deal' last May, including designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and ending exceptions for Iranian oil imports, while also applying military pressure on Iran.

John Bolton, US National Security Advisor, stated in a press release, as reported by AP and Reuters, "In response to many issues and escalating signs and warnings, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and bombers are being deployed to the US Central Command area, which covers the Middle East."

Iran strongly opposes the US's successive sanctions. Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, criticized the US for waging psychological warfare against Iran, saying, "The US wants to keep the Persian Gulf as its own."

When the US recently stopped applying exceptions for eight countries temporarily allowed to import Iranian oil earlier this month, Iran warned it would block the Strait of Hormuz, the sea route through which Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries ship their oil. Iran also mentioned the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz when the US reinstated sanctions blocking Iranian oil exports in November 2018. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy has designated the Strait of Hormuz as its 'primary operational area,' emphasizing Iran's military control over the area. Ali Fadavi, Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, strongly warned, "Every time a US ship enters the Persian Gulf, it will feel like entering hell."

If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the US could mobilize allies to form a 'Hormuz Security Coalition.' The UK has decided to deploy three destroyers to the Gulf waters under the pretext of protecting the safe navigation of its commercial vessels. Although the US claims it does not intend to confront Iran militarily, the presence of US and Iranian warships in the Strait of Hormuz, which is less than 40 km wide, significantly increases the possibility of military conflict due to hostile encounters.

In particular, if Iran shows signs of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a preemptive strike could be launched. This would impose military pressure on Iran with less burden than a full-scale war. Iran has fully deployed naval bases such as Karak, Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The missiles stationed at these bases are Qader and Persian Gulf (Khalij Fars) anti-ship cruise missiles, both with a range of 300 km and known for high accuracy. Especially, they are launched from inland mobile launchers (TEL), making it difficult to detect pre-launch signs.

Military experts say, "If the US needs to detect preemptive movements by monitoring radar detection of coastal bases and missile base activities, a preemptive strike is entirely possible."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.